The upcoming MLS match on September 19, 2024, between Atlanta United and Inter Miami is going to be an interesting one since both teams have moved in opposite trajectories within the Eastern Conference. Currently 10th-placed Atlanta United is in the fight for a playoff spot but has struggled to find form; they have recorded just one win in their last five matches. On the other hand, Inter Miami is high up the table and has been running on high fumes with momentum, spearheaded by their talisman Lionel Messi and solid all-around team performance. This game could have massive implications for both teams, as Atlanta is desperate for points to stay in playoff contention, while Inter Miami aims to pad the lead atop the table.
Atlanta United
The season has been tough so far for Atlanta United, who have managed only 31 points from the 28 matches played. The breakdown is as follows: 8 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses. They come into this match on the back of a 2-0 home defeat to Nashville, failing to show any spark in attack, creating zero big chances despite controlling 56% of possession. Their current form is indeed worrying-with four losses in the last five games-and a tactical approach that has simply not reaped the desired outcome. Offensively, Atlanta has been inconsistent, and quite vulnerable defensively, managing to concede goals in their last four games.
Atlanta United has used a 4-2-3-1 formation for the large part, which offers balance in both attack and defense; however, this setup has been found out in recent games. Against Nashville, they really struggled to move the ball from midfield into attack, as evidenced by a lack of big chances created against a decent amount of possession. Atlanta uses wide play as evidenced by their 20% crossing rate, but an edge upfront has been a problem. Defensively, they won only 44% of their duels and were mediocre for defensive tackles while enjoying only 60% success. This is a worry when having to consider the potent attack of Miami. The inability to win second balls and shield the backline could be exposed to the high press of Inter Miami and the creative forward players.
For Atlanta United, the focus has to be on defensive compactness and limiting the effect Messi has on the game. A 4-2-3-1 can slide into a more defensive 4-5-1 out of possession to clog the midfield and reduce passing lanes to Messi and Suárez. Atlanta needs to improve its set-piece defending and aerial duels, which Inter Miami have shown flashes of their strengths in. On one hand, going forward, Atlanta should exploit the flanks and target Miami’s full-backs, who may be pushing up high up the pitch and allowing space for counter-attacks.
Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami are in stellar form, topping the Eastern Conference with 62 points from 28 games, having won 19 times and losing only 4. The recent form has been impressive with four wins in their last five outings. Undoubtedly, the highlight of the season for them was the arrival of Lionel Messi, whose impact has been immense. They defeated Philadelphia 3-1 in their last home game with two goals and an assist by Messi, extending his great form. The team is solid at both ends of the pitch, as reflected by their high possession statistics and big performances by other key players such as Luis Suárez.
Inter Miami has generally set up in a 4-3-3 system of late, with Messi operating in an extremely free role in attack, often dropping deep to collect the ball and affect play. It has worked like magic in recent weeks, with their 3-1 win against Philadelphia perhaps the most convincing result: dominant possession, with 62% in their favor and plenty of meaningful chances created even as big opportunities were limited. Inter stretch the play through wingers and attack through the center with Messi and Suarez to create a dynamic offense. The midfield is pretty solid in transitions, as such, and recycles possession well to ensure that most of the time the team is never caught out in defense. Defensive stability at Miami underpins their ability to manage the pressure shown in their 7 goalkeeper saves last match-a sign of good organization even when under attack.
Inter Miami will most probably stick to their possession-based 4-3-3 and will look to Messi’s creativity combined with Suárez’s positioning in the box to break down this Atlanta defense. Given Atlanta’s struggles in duels and winning tackles, the best avenue of approach might be quick, short passes, and exploitation of central areas for Miami. The long-ball accuracy of Miami at 64 percent could also be crucial in bypassing the high press with one ball, opening up opportunities to break. With these lengths of confident and flowing attack, Inter Miami most likely will enter this match with an aggressive approach to dominate the first stages of it.
Head to Head
The head-to-head record stands at an even scale because, in the last 13 games between the two teams, Atlanta United and Inter Miami have each won 5 games with a share of 3 draws. That is a rather balanced rivalry, and going by that, the teams could be capable of taking points off each other. Still, recent form and tactical developments indicate a tilt toward Inter Miami’s dominance.
Taking into consideration the fact that the last meeting between them was back in May 2024, when Atlanta won a good 3-1 away from home, now with Inter Miami in top form, especially with Lionel Messi leading from the front, it will be tough on the Atlanta side to pull off something similar.
Expert Betting Tips
Inter Miami comes into this game much stronger, both tactically and in form. Atlanta United will need to rediscover its attacking rhythm and firm things up defensively if it’s going to have any chance of taking down the Eastern Conference leaders. Messi and Suárez’s chemistry will be huge for Inter Miami, and if Atlanta can’t contain them, they may be in for another tough outing.
Considering the dominance in possession, coupled with the form of Lionel Messi, this gives a huge advantage to Inter Miami. The defense of Atlanta has been very shaky this season, and there is little chance it will be able to contain Messi and Suárez.
Given that Inter Miami scores more or less regularly and Atlanta conceding in their last four, goals are expected, and over 2.5 goals have appeared in eight of Inter Miami’s last ten matches, with Atlanta’s leaky defense suggesting a high-scoring affair.
Poor form aside, Atlanta could find the net at home, and the “GG” trend has hit in 8 of Inter Miami’s last 10 matches. With Atlanta’s attacking wide play, they might grab a goal even in defeat.
- Away Win/Draw & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.86 Odds
- Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.63 Odds
- Lionel Messi to Score Anytime @ 2.25 Odds