At its most basic, the Trump Trade is taking a bet on asset classes that are likely to be given a boost by the policies of a Trump administration.
Broadly speaking, that means ratcheting up protectionism and spending — both seen to be inflationary via more expensive imports and a higher dollar/ higher rate.
Already the big bond investors are said to be avoiding long-term US Treasuries, anxious about Trump’s trade and economic policies, despite Team Trump’s assurances they are just the ticket to bring down interest rates and narrow deficits.
“Interest rate volatility is likely to remain higher as a result of fiscal and other factors … I think a lot of that is a function of this uncertainty around debt and deficit supply,” Chitrang Purani, a fixed income portfolio manager at Capital Group, which manages more than $US2 trillion in assets, told Reuters over the weekend.
Consequently, Capital Group is “underweight” Treasury maturities of 10 years and longer, while it is offsetting that position with an overweight on intermediate maturities.
The giant of the game, the world’s biggest money manager BlackRock, with $US 10.7 trillion in assets, has also said in recent days it was “bearish” on any Treasury longer than 10 years.
The other potential impact of higher tariff walls ringing the US is on smaller US domiciled firms, particularly manufacturers.
While the rotation out of Big Tech into small-cap stocks has been in part driven by fears over eye-watering valuations, there is a sense the small fry may benefit from protectionist policies, at least in the short term.
The rotation out of “big tech” has seen the S&P 500 tech sector drop almost 6% — or $US900 billion ($1.3 trillion) — in just the last week, while the small cap Russell 2000 jumped more than 7%.
The recent speculation about tighter export controls on semi-conductor technology to China has also driven a big part of the correction, and that’s a policy a Trump administration would most likely support.
Another part of the Trump trade is Bitcoin which has jumped more than 10% since the failed assassination attempt on Mr Trump last week.
The former president has not always been the biggest fan of cryptocurrencies, but it’s fair to say he has warmed to them in recent years.
It will be interesting to see what Mr Trump says at this week’s annual Bitcoin conference in Nashville.
A roomful of well-heeled, potential donors may just be told what they want to hear.
As for the other bit of the opening rhetorical question, it is a bit early to say, but anything short of a big improvement the Democrats polling before November won’t shift the dial that much.