European qualification is squarely on the line as Aston Villa host Chelsea on Saturday in Premier League action, with just a few games remaining in the 2023/24 season.
Aston Villa are in a bitter fight for the final Champions League qualifying spot in the table, deadlocked with Tottenham on maximum possible points. Villa sit six points clear in fourth and hold a five-goal differential advantage, but Spurs maintain two games in hand, meaning Villa cannot afford any slips the rest of the way.
Chelsea, meanwhile, are also on thin ice, as they sit ninth with six games left on the schedule. They are just three points behind seventh-placed Newcastle, but were pummeled by Arsenal 5-0 last time out to dampen their hopes of mounting a late-season move up the table.
No European football for a second consecutive season would leave Chelsea searching for answers as they move forward under owner Todd Boehly.
USA: Click here to see the latest odds for Aston Villa vs Chelsea and bet Premier League matches
Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean:Â Aston Villa (+105)
- Score prediction:Â Aston Villa 3-2 Chelsea
Both these clubs have proven majorly flawed in recent weeks, especially as injury troubles mount towards the end of the season. Yet Chelsea are the more mentally frail side, and the status of Cole Palmer remains in question after missing the Arsenal defeat due to illness.
Incredibly, the home side hasn’t won in this fixture since Chelsea’s 3-0 victory at Stamford Bridge in 2011, including Chelsea’s 3-1 FA Cup victory over Villa at this venue back in February. In that game, though, the two sides were far more even than the scoreline would suggest, both producing 15 shots and over 1.0 xG. Villa should get their revenge here.
While the initial odds release had Chelsea as serious contenders, the line movement before kickoff saw a big swing in favour of Aston Villa, who will end up as even-money favourites on the moneyline.
Â
| Â | BetMGM (USA) |
| Aston Villa win | +105 |
| Draw | +290 |
| Chelsea win | +210 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -300 N:Â +195 |
| Over / Under 3.5 goals |
O: -120 U: -120 |
| Chelsea -0.5 goals |
-135 |
| Aston Villa +0.5 goals |
-105 |
Aston Villa vs Chelsea match facts
- Date:Â Saturday, April 27, 2024
- Kickoff time:Â 8 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12Â p.m. PT)
- Location: Villa Park (Birmingham, England)
- Referee: Craig Pawson, VAR: Chris Kavanagh
- Last meeting:Â Aston Villa 1-3 Chelsea (Feb. 7, 2024Â | FA Cup)
Aston Villa vs Chelsea best bet
- Pick:Â Aston Villa 16+ shots
- Odds:Â -110 (FanDuel)
Aston Villa have not crossed this threshold in all three games against Chelsea this season, but they’ve come up one short in two of them, and in a match where they will be expected to find the net repeatedly, there will be more opportunities for them to have a go on goal.
The Chelsea back line is utterly inundated with injuries, and those who remain fit have been woefully poor. Marc Cucurella was embarrassed throughout the match against Arsenal last time out, while Axel Disasi has not been strong defensively in his first season in blue. There will be chances a-plenty for the hosts here, even if Chelsea manage to bag a few themselves.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea prop bet
- Pick:Â Moussa Diaby to score a goal assisted by Ollie Watkins
- Odds:Â +1000 (FanDuel)
After toiling through a middle third of the season with little to show for his efforts, Moussa Diaby has begun to ignite once again for Aston Villa in recent weeks. In his last six Premier League appearances, Diaby has racked up five goal contributions, plus a UECL goal against Ajax in that span as well.
Alongside him, while Ollie Watkins is going for a Golden Boot, the Aston Villa talisman is also prolific in the build-up. Of Diaby’s six Premier League goals this season, Watkins has assisted half of them, including his 57th minute strike against Bournemouth last time out. As these two link up moving forward, they will be a formidable pair up front heading into next season when Aston Villa are sure to be participating in Europe again.
Aston Villa vs Chelsea live stream, TV channel
U.S. broadcast rights-holders NBC Sports have placed this Saturday match exclusively on streaming service Peacock despite having its own dedicated kickoff time.
In Canada, Fubo is the exclusive broadcast rights-holder for the Premier League this season, with every match from August to May streaming live on the platform. Fubo also hold the exclusive broadcast rights to Serie A games in Canada, while other leagues like MLS, Bundesliga, and La Liga can be found throughout the season as well.
This marquee Premier League match on Saturday will be broadcast domestically in the UK on TNT Sports 1, with streaming on their platform discovery+.