On the anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 terrorist attack, the Islamic Republic has pledged to target Israeli cities and critical infrastructure while US and Israeli officials consider their options in response to Tehran’s second ballistic missile assault. With Israel’s air defense capabilities demonstrating superiority over Iranian missiles and the military setbacks suffered by the regime’s proxies, Tehran has increasingly diminished its leverage over Jerusalem. This shifting dynamic offers Israel a strategic opportunity to target the regime’s nuclear facilities, addressing the primary existential threat it faces.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)-funded Tasnim News warned on October 7 of “10 escalatory operational plans” in retaliation to a potential Israeli response to the October 1 Iranian missile attack. Citing an anonymous military source, the IRGC outlet described Tehran’s ambitions as “not necessarily as proportional countermeasure to the potential Israeli attack; it can be more severe and with different goals.” The statement also threatened US and regional countries as well: “Any country helping a potential Israeli operation will suffer losses.”
A day prior, Tasnim published an infographic titled “If it strikes, it will hit harder; Iran’s multiple targets for attacking (Israeli) nuclear centers and infrastructure.” The image depicts 10 Israeli civilian and nuclear targets next to an Iranian missile:
Here is a translation of text describing the targets:
Tel Aviv
Tel Aviv is the largest Zionist population gathering point and the [Israeli] regime’s economic capital. Attacking the economic infrastructure there [Tel Aviv] could cause financial blow and further pressure Zionists from a social and security standpoint.
Dimona
The nuclear reactor which is the only plutonium production facility in Israel. In case of this site’s destruction, all Israeli settlements in the center and south would face a crisis.
Tirosh
Some of the Zionist strategic nuclear weapons are housed in the Tirosh facility. Striking this center [site] could pose a major threat for the Zionists, as well as destroying the [Israeli] regime’s tool.
Karish Oil Field
Destroying Karish oil facilities and ensuring its inability to recover by the Resistance Forces could disrupt [Israel’s] long-term programs.
Haifa Port
Haifa is the [Israeli] regime’s largest port and also home to technology companies. [It] is the base for major weapon manufacturing [facility] Rafael that is the manufactures a wide range of weaponry and generates billions of dollars annually. This city is also hosts the largest oil refinery in Israel.
Ashkelon Port
This port has been developed to relieve the pressure on the Haifa port and it serves as an oil transport route to the Persian Gulf. This port also possesses numerous petroleum reservoirs.
Rafael Company
Rafael company’s facilities which are located in the port city of Haifa. It is the main location for assembling nuclear weapons.
Sedot Micha Base
Sedot Micha base houses Jericho ballistic missiles armed with nuclear warheads.
Yodfat
Certain intelligence suggests that Yodfat facilities are where nuclear weapons are assembled.
Eilabon
Eilabon facilities are the location housing tactical nuclear weapons. These facilities that have a lesser explosive capability compared to strategic nuclear weapons, are used for defensive purposes
The image’s descriptions for the Tel Aviv, Dimona, and Tirosh targets indicate the central pillar of the Islamic Republic’s malign doctrine: exerting pressure on Israel by targeting civilians. This mirrors the strategy employed by Hezbollah that sought to ensure that northern Israel would remain unsafe for civilians, aiming to pressure Israel from within.
Islamic Republic President Masoud Pezeshkian, his so-called “reformist” administration, and the IRGC are aligned on the regime’s escalatory military policies. Prior to landing in Beirut to show solidarity with the regime-backed Hezbollah, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that “Iran’s response to any Israeli aggression will be stronger and harsher” during a press conference in Damascus.
Iran’s threats came amidst a high-level meeting between US and Israeli officials. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) stated on October 7 that US Central Command Chief Commander General Michael Kurilla met with IDF Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi and discussed “the current security issues, with an emphasis on Iran and the northern front.”
Meanwhile, an anonymous US Department of State official told CNN on October 4 that Israel has refrained from reassuring the Biden administration that “targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities is off the table.” Days prior, IDF Spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari noted Israel would respond on its terms: “We will respond wherever, whenever, and however we choose.”
Tehran’s threats of retaliation through ballistic missiles and proxy warfare aimed at civilians, which risk displacing populations, are unsustainable for Israel and constitute an immediate danger. However, they pale in comparison to the existential threat posed by a nuclear-armed Islamic Republic.
Israel’s military campaign in southern Lebanon and Gaza and its air defense systems have partially alleviated the missile and proxy threat, at least in the short term. In the two ballistic missile attacks launched from Iranian soil in April and October, some 90–80% of the projectiles were intercepted by the Arrow and David’s Sling systems, and no significant casualties were reported. Furthermore, the IDF has claimed to have eliminated Hamas’s military wing, and Hezbollah’s leadership has been decapitated. In light of this significant shift in the region’s balance of power, Israel is ideally positioned to target approximately 13 nuclear installation sites.