Tomorrow’s Top 25 Today: Texas returns to No. 1 as chaos leads to big shakeup in college football rankings

Some of the most memorable weeks in college football end up being the ones fans don’t quite see coming. While the Week 6 scoreboard included no huge clash of the titans to generate hype all through the week, Saturday itself provided more thrills, upsets and iconic images than we’ve seen in any given week during the 2024 season. 

The college football rankings have to be thrown into the blender after Week 6 because so many of the pieces that made up last week’s AP Top 25 poll look very different after Saturday, which was historic. Five teams in the top 12 of the AP rankings lost, the first time that’s happened since 2021 — but even back in 2021, three of those losses came to fellow top 12 teams, meaning there was guaranteed to be some ranked carnage. This was different. 

Seven teams from the top 12 of last week’s rankings were on the road on Saturday, and five of them (at the time of this initial publish) lost. And while it’s easy to be amazed in the totality of the day’s upsets, none were more remarkable than unranked Vanderbilt taking down No. 1 Alabama the week after the Crimson Tide had risen to that spot by beating Georgia. 

It wasn’t the biggest upset by point spread of the season (that would still be Notre Dame’s loss to Northern Illinois), but given the history and pedigree of each program, the result is going to resonate for decades. The images of the goal posts being carried down Broadway in downtown Nashville, the dynamic playmaking of Diego Pavia and the fact that Vanderbilt went wire-to-wire in the win by pushing an Alabama defense off the ball make the Commodores’ victory one of the biggest results of the season so far. 

But then there was even more! 

No. 4 Tennessee lost a low-scoring battle at unranked Arkansas, No. 10 Michigan fell short at unranked Washington and No. 11 USC got tripped up at unranked Minnesota. The entire day was filled with top teams losing in spots to unranked opponents, and that’s not even considering No. 9 Missouri getting blasted by No. 25 Texas A&M at the beginning of the day. 

This kind of upset-fueled chaos keeps fans falling in love with the sport over and over again, but it’s going to be a headache for AP voters to try and sort through the carnage for their updated ballots.  

Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 to look on Sunday: 

1. Texas (Last week — 2): The Longhorns were off in Week 6 and will return to action next Saturday with the Red River Showdown against Oklahoma. 

2. Ohio State (3): Alabama’s loss will lead to some more first-place votes heading to Ohio State, especially after another dominant defensive performance in a 35-7 win against Iowa. But since the Buckeyes were a noticeable margin behind Texas last week, it’s tough to imagine Ohio State can make up enough ground to jump all the way to No. 1.   

3. Oregon (6): The Ducks handled business on Friday night against Michigan State, jumping out to an early lead and defending it the rest of the way in a 31-10 win.  

4. Georgia (5): It’s possible the Bulldogs’ standing is going to be hurt by Alabama’s upset loss, but in the consensus, we’re not projecting much movement after an 18-point win against Auburn.  

5. Penn State (7): While the offense lacked some of the explosiveness that highlighted the opening weeks of Penn State’s 2024 campaign, a 27-11 win against UCLA won’t spark any major changes in the rankings. 

6. Miami (8): The Hurricanes are currently in action at Cal. 

7. Alabama (1): Finding a spot that makes sense for Alabama is extremely difficult. The Crimson Tide will continue to be rewarded for a win against Georgia, but Saturday’s loss will get more of a ranking penalty than what the Bulldogs saw after defeat a week ago. Our projection is Kalen DeBoer’s group will be among the top one-loss teams in the rankings, but not the top one-loss team.    

8. Ole Miss (12): A fast start in Columbia set up what amounts to a solid bounce-back win for the Rebels against South Carolina. Voters won’t rush to move Ole Miss way up in the rankings based on the result, but they will enjoy a pair of rushing touchdowns from 325-pound nose tackle JJ Pegues. 

9. LSU (13): The Tigers were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next week at home against Ole Miss. 

10. Notre Dame (14): The Fighting Irish were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next week against Stanford.  

11. Texas A&M (25): We are set to see a big jump in the rankings for a Texas A&M team that has now won five straight games and become the first SEC team to reach 3-0 in conference play. While a popular topic this week will be debating Texas A&M’s ceiling moving forward in terms of the SEC and College Football Playoff race, the AP poll ceiling for Sunday is probably one spot behind Notre Dame.   

12. Clemson (15): The Tigers defense made everything difficult on new Florida State starting QB Brock Glenn, and Clemson’s offense flexed its physicality in a hard-fought 29-13 win in Tallahassee.  

13. Tennessee (4): Obviously the rankings floor for the Vols is the road win against Oklahoma, but we’re projecting that Tennessee will land a few spots ahead of the Sooners. Tennessee could end up as high as No. 10 or No. 11, but when the high-octane offense has yet again failed to meet expectations, we’re thinking there could be more of a penalty from the voters. 

14. Iowa State (16): It took a couple possessions for Iowa State to wake up, but the Cyclones proved their ranking with a thunderous finish by outscoring Baylor 40-14 over the final three quarters of the game.  

15. BYU (17): The Cougars were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next Saturday at home against Arizona.  

16. Utah (18): The Utes were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next Friday at Arizona State. 

17. Oklahoma (19): The Sooners were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next Saturday against Texas. 

18. Kansas State (20): The Wildcats were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next Saturday night at Colorado. 

19. Boise State (21): The Ashton Jeanty highlight reel continues and Boise State’s offense continues to pour on the points against basically everyone on the schedule. For many running backs, rushing for 1,000 yards in a season is a career highlight. Jeanty, after going for 186 yards and three touchdowns against Utah State, has hit that mark in just five games. 

20. Indiana (23): For the second week in a row, Indiana was in a tight game in the second half only to hit the gas and pull away from a Big Ten opponent. Last week, it was Maryland at home (42-28 final score). This week, it was Northwestern on the road (41-24 final score). Indiana is now 6-0 for just the second time ever, matching the start from the program’s Rose Bowl season in 1967.  

21. Illinois (24): The Fighting Illini were off in Week 6 and will be back in action next Saturday against Purdue. 

22. Pitt (NR): Pat Narduzzi’s squad was 27th in voting points last week and poised to break through into the top 25 after beating North Carolina to reach 5-0 for the first time since 1991. 

23. Nebraska (NR): Back-to-back wins against Purdue and Rutgers have put the Cornhuskers on the cusp of bowl eligibility. All the shakeups in the rankings could spark a return to the top 25. 

24. SMU (NR): The Mustangs were further down in the voting points rankings last week, but after beating Louisville, voters are sure to give SMU’s profile a second look. That profile includes a 5-1 record with three power conference wins, one coming against a ranked team on the road, and the only loss is to a team the voters have inside the top 20. 

25. Missouri (9): There’s a solid argument that Missouri is due to drop out of the rankings entirely given the team’s 4-1 profile includes just two power conference wins, both by six points or less. But if Texas A&M is moving up then Missouri, like an SMU, suddenly stands out as a one-loss team with its only defeat coming to a top-20 foe.   

Projected to drop out: No. 10 Michigan, No. 11 USC No. 22 Louisville, No. 25 UNLV