Former US President and Republican nominee Donald Trump had initially made gains against his Democratic challenger Kamala Harris in the presidential race. Ahead of the Labour Day 2024 weekend, however, the state and national polls showed that Vice President Harris holds a narrow lead over Trump in key battleground states, as only two months remain for the US elections in November.
According to a report by NBC News, Harris is performing better than Trump in nearly every national survey, even within the margins of error, which is how close one can reasonably expect a survey result to be relative in terms of the population value.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump has maintained a near constant error of 47 per cent in various polls. The Wall Street Journal, EPIC-MRA Michigan, and Bloomberg/Morning Consult surveys in Georgia and Michigan all show him at the exact same number. This marks a reversal from the polls seen before Biden’s withdrawal.
Swing state polls
Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls indicate Harris has surpassed Trump within the margin of error in Georgia (50%), Michigan (49%), Nevada (50%), and Pennsylvania (51%). In Wisconsin, which is a key swing state, the Vice President leads Trump by a wider margin of 53 per cent.
Arizona and North Carolina, on the other hand, has showed a tight contest between Trump and Harris. This contrasts sharply with Biden’s performance during his re-election campaign, when he struggled to gain traction in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina.
Joe Biden was trailing Donald Trump
Before Harris took over as the Democratic candidate, Biden was trailing Trump, much before the US Presidential debate on June 27. Despite narrow margins in the Great Lakes swing states and larger gaps in the Sun Belt, Harris is performing better and is seen as a more trusted leader overall.
Poll data from the Wall Street Journal, Quinnipiac, and Suffolk/USA Today show Kamala Harris leading with percentages of 48%, 49%, and 48%, respectively, while Donald Trump is at 47%, 48%, and 43% in these surveys.