Efforts to filter carbon dioxide from the air and oceans will rapidly expand in the coming decades — but not enough to reach net-zero emissions globally, according to a landmark survey of carbon removal experts.
That means global warming would be unlikely to remain below the 2-degrees-Celsius limit set by the Paris Agreement, which would require the world to offset more emissions than it produces by midcentury, the New York University School of Law study found.
Climate scientists have warned that temperature increases beyond 2 C could lead to increasingly severe weather events, wildfires, droughts and rising seas, with significant harms to the agricultural systems that sustain human populations.
The study, published Wednesday by the law school’s Institute for Policy Integrity, is likely the largest expert survey of its kind. It was based on responses from nearly 700 carbon removal academics, developers, regulators and analysts who have published scientific papers on the topic in the past five years.