Copa America final Argentina vs. Colombia prediction, odds, stats, betting tips and best bets for 2024 decider | Sporting News

Lionel Messi and Argentina will gun for a second consecutive Copa America title and third straight major international trophy when they meet Colombia in the 2024 Copa America final from Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Sunday.

The Albiceleste won the last edition of this tournament back in 2020, handing Messi his long-awaited first major international trophy and vaulting Argentina to global prominence that they followed up by achieving World Cup glory two years later.

Colombia, meanwhile, are in the midst of a national team record 27-match unbeaten streak. That dates back to the previous meeting between these two sides, when Argentina topped Los Cafeteros 1-0 back in early 2022 to mark the last time Colombia tasted defeat.

Argentina are the joint-most successful nation in the Copa America, with 15 titles, even with Uruguay and six more than Brazil. Colombia, meanwhile, have only made the Copa America final twice before, winning their lone title back in 2001 as hosts.

Argentina vs. Colombia prediction

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+195)
• To lift the trophy: Argentina (-175)
• Result best bet: Colombia draw no bet (+110)
• Score prediction: Argentina 1-1 Colombia

Despite the gap in national team pedigree, superstar talent, and trophies won, Colombia are absolutely capable of lifting the trophy.

Combine their exceptional unbeaten streak spanning across more than two calendar years with Argentina’s sleep-walk through the 2024 tournament, and there’s real reason to back an upset.

Here’s the one problem: to beat Argentina, you have to beat them in 90 minutes. Expecting to beat penalty wizard Emiliano Martinez in a shootout is a pipe dream, and thus defeating Argentina in regular time is the better pathway to a trophy. This is something Colombia are more than capable of — they held a man-up Uruguay to just two second-half shots on target and zero big chances in the semifinal.

Still, betting entirely against the best team in the world, who’s proven they can get results without their best stuff, is difficult. Backing Colombia on the draw no bet at plus odds presents solid value.

Argentina vs. Colombia odds

The betting market has largely not been swayed by Argentina’s star power, as the Albiceleste have slightly plus moneyline odds. At under 3/1, Colombia do not present enough value on the three-way moneyline to back as underdogs, but if that climbs over 3/1 towards kickoff, there starts to be something there.

The 2024 Copa America has largely been devoid of goals, as major international tournaments often are, but it’s been somewhat devoid of quality too, leading to a strong lean towards the under.

Argentina vs. Colombia match facts

• Date: Sunday, July 14, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, FL)
• Referee: Rafael Claus (BRA)
• Last meeting: Argentina 1-0 Colombia (Feb. 1, 2022 | World Cup qualifying)

• No CONMEBOL team has ever won two consecutive Copa America titles sandwiched or adjacent to a FIFA World Cup title. Brazil came the closest, winning the Copa America in 1997 and 1999 but falling in the 1998 World Cup final to hosts France.
• Only two players in history have scored in a Copa America final and World Cup final: Brazil legend Ronaldo and Angel Di Maria of Argentina. Di Maria is retiring form international duty at the end of this tournament. Lionel Messi could become the third if he scores in this match.
• James Rodriguez has six assists at the 2024 Copa America, the most of any player on record in the history of the competition, breaking Lionel Messi’s mark of five.

Argentina vs. Colombia team news

Argentina will have its full compliment of players, as there are no known injuries to report and yellow card accumulation suspensions do not apply for this stage of the competition. Lionel Messi will be fit to play despite dealing with a muscle injury earlier in this tournament, while head coach Lionel Scaloni will have to decide between Julian Alvarez or Golden Boot leader Lautaro Martinez up front.

Colombia will be without left-back Daniel Munoz following his red card in the semifinal, which left Los Cafeteros with a nearly impossible task. In a title game, head coach Nestor Lorenzo will let it fly with James Rodriguez, who at 32 years old is hardly a 90-minute player anymore, but there’s no need to keep him rested with a trophy on the line.

Argentina vs. Colombia best bet

• Pick: Both teams to score — Yes
• Odds: +115 (BetMGM)

Argentina have not had their best across this tournament in the attacking third, and Colombia have largely managed to tie down all their opponents to this point. This has led to a wild swing in the betting market towards fewer goals, an opportunity to capitalize on.

James Rodriguez set a Copa America record for assists in a single tournament by registering his sixth of the 2024 competition against Uruguay in the semifinals, and looks rejuvenated at 32 years old. He registered an assist in the 2-0 win for Colombia over Argentina in the 2019 Copa America group stage, and has been exceptional this summer.

The Albiceleste, meanwhile, are always a threat regardless of who’s on the field or how well Lionel Messi is playing. They have conceded just a single goal this whole tournament, but have not faced an opponent remotely at the level Colombia are at currently. They should have lost to Ecuador, who missed three big chances in their quarterfinal meeting before scoring a 91st-minute equalizer to send the match to penalties.

Argentina vs. Colombia prop bets

• Pick: Under 8 total corners
• Odds: +165 (FanDuel)

Neither of these two teams have been proficient at racking up corners this Copa America, as they both prioritize their defensive structure over attacking flow, regardless of game state. Defensively, they prefer to foul an opponent before they can create a dangerous move rather than allow teams to play them vertically.

After a group stage where they played for heavy corner counts, Argentina produced just two corners against Canada and two against Ecuador in their pair of knockout games.

Colombia, meanwhile, conceded just four corners to a man-up Uruguay through the second half of their semifinal after giving up zero in the first 45 minutes, while they themselves racked up just four in the 5-0 demolition of Panama in the quarterfinals. The low semifinal count between Colombia and Uruguay is especially notable considering that match was played at a very frantic pace throughout the game in Charlotte. In a final, it will be much more controlled.

• Pick: Colombia to score first
• Odds: +150 (BetMGM)

In their five Copa America matches, Colombia have scored a first-half goal in all but one, racking up seven first-half strikes compared to five after the break, a notable discrepancy. Argentina have not given up a first-half goal as of yet, but they have conceded at least one “big chance” across the opening 45 minutes in four of their five matches at this tournament.

If Colombia are going to win this game, it will likely happen via an early goal rather than a late one.

Argentina vs. Colombia goal scorer bet

• Pick: James Rodriguez to score or assist
• Odds: +300 (FanDuel)

Argentina are so strong defensively that it’s no surprise Colombian players have high odds to find the net, but at 3/1 odds, backing the tournament’s record-setting assist leader to contribute on the scoresheet presents too good of value not to play.

James Rodriguez has managed to find how to will Los Cafeteros to score in a seemingly unlimited number of ways. In the semifinal against Uruguay, Marcelo Bielsa clearly instructed his side to limit James’s influence, yet he still assisted a goal via a set-piece. Against Panama in the quarterfinal, the 32-year-old had just 48 touches and four passes into the final third, but registered two assists and scored from the penalty spot.

Against Brazil, in a game more emblematic of how this final will go, Rodriguez managed to rack up an enormous 67 touches, delivering three shots and three chances created while winning seven of 10 ground duels, taking five corners, and hitting on a third of his crosses. Take away one part of his game, and he’s managed to find other ways to contribute. If Colombia are to win this Copa America, they will need their revitalized superstar to be at his best.

Argentina vs. Colombia live stream, TV channel

USA: The 2024 Copa America final will be televised in the United States on FOX, with a Spanish-language broadcast via Univision and TUDN. All three channels are available to stream on Fubo, who are offering a FREE seven-day trial.

Spanish-language coverage is also available on streaming platform ViX.

Canada: All Copa America matches can be seen in Canada on TSN’s respective TV channel and live streaming services, while this match is also televised on CTV Two. RDS provides French-language coverage.

UK: This match will be shown in the UK on Premier Sport Player’s platforms.

If the Copa America final is not available to watch live in your location, or if you’re traveling abroad, you can use a Virtual Private Network (VPN). VPNs offer a secure and private online connection, allowing you to bypass geographical restrictions to access your favorite streaming services from any device anywhere in the world.

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