Sunday, March 9, 2025

Bracketology: First automatic bid to 2025 NCAA Tournament field on tap as regular season winds down

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It’s the last day of the regular season for the conferences that have not finished already except for the American and Big Ten, which will finish on Sunday. Also, the first automatic bid to the 2025 NCAA Tournament goes out Saturday when Southeast Missouri State and Southern Illinois-Edwardsville meet for the Oho Valley Conference crown.

There could be a second automatic bid determined today as well. St. Thomas is the second seed in the Summit League tournament but is ineligible for the postseason because it continues transitioning to Division I. If it wins the conference tournament, the automatic bid goes to top seed Omaha. If both win their semifinals today, Omaha will be in the NCAA Tournament win or lose on Sunday.

It ended up being an eventful Friday for a relatively quiet schedule.

Boise State lost at home to Colorado State 83-73. The Broncos had been the last team in my projected bracket on Friday,  but they are now the first team out. Xavier moved up to take their place.

VCU lost at home to Dayton 79-76, dropping out of contention for an at-large bid if it needed one. The Rams did not have a very good chance at an at-large bid anyway despite being in the top 30 of the predictive metrics.  They just do not have wins of high enough quality to compete for an at-large spot. VCU is still in the bracket as the top seed in the Atlantic 10 Tournament which begins on Wednesday.

Further up the bracket, Illinois beat Purdue 88-80, snapping a six-game losing streak to the Boilermakers. Purdue drops down one spot to a 4-seed in this morning’s bracket. Illinois, meanwhile, is up to a seven.

There are still thirteen SEC teams in the projected bracket as we enter the day. Three of them are within five spots of the cut-line, so it could conceivably get as low as 10 in the field, but I believe it will be 11 or 12 in the end. The record for the most teams from one conference in the NCAA Tournament is 11. That was from the Big East in 2011.

In order to balance the bracket, Oregon and Michigan were swapped on the 4-line, which moved the Ducks away from their natural region.

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Check out Palm’s bracket and full field of 68 at the Bracketology hub.

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