Gasoline prices are likely headed higher in the weeks ahead as the impact of refinery maintenance and outages, particularly in California, trickle through the market ahead of the yearly switch to more expensive summer blends.
On Wednesday, the national average price for gasoline hovered around $3.16 per gallon, $0.04 higher than a month ago and $0.11 lower than exactly one year ago, according to AAA data.
“The national average has inched higher, driven primarily by sharp gas price increases on the West Coast, where refinery maintenance and outages have created a ripple effect in neighboring states, pushing prices higher in many communities,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
De Haan anticipates that the national average for gas will rise by $0.25 to $0.60 between now and mid-April, with the costliest driving fuel remaining along the West Coast.
Meanwhile, Tom Kloza, OPIS global head of energy analysis, forecasts “gasoline rising $0.20 to $0.33 per gallon more before peaking somewhere between Easter and Cinco de Mayo.”
Refineries have been undergoing planned seasonal maintenance, putting pressure on supply. Meanwhile, a Feb. 1 fire at the Martinez refinery in Northern California forced the shut-down of nearly all its units.
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The outages come ahead of the annual switch to more expensive summer fuel blends, with western states making the changeover first.
California already has the most expensive gasoline in the US due to fees and taxes tied to green initiatives. Gasoline averages in the Golden State jumped $0.41 over the past month to $4.85 per gallon, about $0.20 higher than a year ago.
Washington state also saw prices at the pump jump roughly $0.22 over the past month to $4.15 per gallon.
Meanwhile, Nevada’s one-month increase of $0.23 has the state average hovering at $3.89.
Despite a spike at the pump in the short term, Kloza forecasts retail gas prices will move lower in the second half of the year.
“US gas price averages will largely be well below $3 per gallon in the last third of 2025 unless we see a hurricane impact the US Gulf Coast,” said Kloza.
The Energy Information Administration predicts gasoline will decrease by $0.11 per gallon this year, or 3%, with another 6% drop expected in 2026.
“The lower US gasoline prices are primarily a result of lower crude oil prices, as well as decreasing gasoline consumption in 2026 because of increasing fleetwide fuel economy,” a January EIA report said.
On Wednesday, oil futures jumped 1% to extend gains from the prior session after delegates from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, said the group was considering delaying its output raise for a fourth time.