KANSAS CITY — Spiking prices, shrinking supply and enforced rationings to control panic buying at grocery stores all sound like reminiscences from the COVID-19 pandemic. The scarcity agita has returned. But instead of toilet paper, the focus is on eggs, and like the prior chaos experienced during COVID, supply chain managers and consumer-facing businesses are positioned to observe the challenges of dwindling supply amid intensifying demand.
“I never thought I’d be interviewed about eggs, but here we are,” said Bo Davis, chief executive officer and founder at MarginEdge, a software company that collects and manages purchasing data for restaurants nationwide. He said his company noticed the price of eggs quickly became an outlier compared to other ingredients. “Between early 2024 and late fall, egg prices were up about 40%, but there was some bouncing up and down during that period. But since November, it just went straight up, week over week.”
Davis said the jump in egg prices is starting to eat into profit margins, especially for bakery and breakfast-centered businesses. It’s unusual for a single ingredient to generate so much impact, but eggs are not just a main feature; they also are a fundamental component to multiple dishes. Restaurateurs have been employing an array of creative strategies to compensate for the price hike, but it’s been difficult.
“When it’s salmon or something that’s more specific, you can use specials to help sell around it. But it’s harder with eggs because it’s an ingredient that’s in so much,” Davis said. “So, the first thing you do is adjust your specials, adjust the sales pitch your servers are giving to drive customers to a different item. But at the end of the day, you have to look at either lowering portion sizes, increasing prices or taking a loss until the price of eggs comes back down. Or you try to push the waffles. I’ve been seeing a lot of waffle specials in breakfast places lately.”
Recently, Waffle House, the fast casual breakfast chain dotting interstate exit off ramps, announced it would be adding a 50¢-per-egg surcharge to its egg-based menu items. Waffle House serves 272 million eggs per year, making it the chain’s most-ordered item, according to the company’s website.
But despite price hikes, surcharges and server-suggested pushes toward other options, consumer demand for eggs persists. Typically, retail egg sales follow a seasonal pattern, with higher purchasing concentrated around the fall and holiday baking months. However, egg processors have noted a steady demand for eggs, from both the consumer and manufacturing sectors. Unfortunately, supply has not been able to keep up.
Since early 2022, an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), commonly referred to as bird flu, has ravaged flocks of every feather. Due to the density of table-egg laying operations, which often house between one and three million hens, a single detection of HPAI can eliminate a hefty portion of available egg supplies. Since the outbreak began, over 100 million hens from commercial table-egg facilities have been euthanized. A recent report from CoBank said the US egg industry now has 8% fewer egg-laying hens than it did three years ago.
The value of large Grade A eggs has surged over 187% since January 2024, according to pricing data provided by the US Department of Agriculture and prices collected by Sosland Publishing Co. Values for egg products also soared during the period, with dried whole eggs now up 187%, frozen whole eggs are 192% higher and liquid whole eggs have jumped 208%.
While restaurants employ various strategies to manage the price spikes, grocers have little choice but to pass on the higher prices while also trying to limit consumer buying. Still, consumers continue to clamor for eggs.
Amanda Oren, vice president of industry strategy for grocery in North America at Relex Solutions, said she noticed a strong correlation in consumer egg demand along with increased usage of GLP-1 medications.
“Almost 10% of adult Americans are taking some form of GLP-1, and it seems to be having a huge impact on what categories are selling,” Oren said. “Sales of very salty snacks and sugary treats are down, whereas categories like eggs and other proteins as well as produce are seeing a pretty significant bump.”
Oren also noticed sales of plant-based egg replacements were on the rise, but consumers were still buying eggs whenever they were available.
“Consumers have realized that if they see eggs, they need to buy them. They don’t want to wait and see if they’re going to be a lower price somewhere else because they might not be in stock. It’s almost like the shortage has created this need to buy eggs, even if buyers don’t need them,” she said.