The Bills cannot get by the Chiefs in the playoffs. It happened again Sunday in a 32-29 loss to Kansas City in the AFC Championship game. The last three defeats have been by a grand total of nine points — all separate three-point losses. That clearly indicates Buffalo is excruciatingly close to Kansas City.
What do the Bills need to do roster-wise, to end their Chiefs misery?
It boils down to two key personnel moves.
Add premier offensive playmaker in one of early rounds
Here are the Bills’ first selections in the last three drafts:
2022: Cornerback Kaiir Elam
2023: Tight end Dalton Kincaid
2024: Wide receiver Keon Coleman
Coleman and Kincaid combined for three catches and 25 yards in the AFC Championship. That can’t happen. And this wasn’t a one-off down performance from those two. Coleman and Kincaid were both injured around the time same, for a similar duration in the middle of the season. After Kincaid’s return, in six outings — including the playoffs — he had 16 receptions for 163 yards and went over 50 yards in a single game once.
Coleman, in seven contests post-injury, had just 10 catches for 161 yards.
Frankly, those stat lines are unacceptable for young, early round selections, especially with an MVP-caliber quarterback like Josh Allen throwing them the football. The “Everybody eats” mantra flourished for the Bills in the 2024 season, yet when it matters most, a supreme talent can make the world of difference, and transcend even a perfect defensive play call.
Therefore, to match the Chiefs, the Bills need to add a go-to, premier offensive playmaker in either Round 1 or Round 2 of the 2025 NFL Draft. First-round ideas include Texas’ Matthew Golden — a speedster — or Michigan’s Colston Loveland, an uber-talented receiving tight end. It’s hard to decipher now who’ll be available in Round 2, but it’s become a necessity for the Bills to add a true game-changer for Allen to lean on in crunch time in a back-and-forth battle with Mahomes. Even Bowling Green’s tremendous YAC tight end Harold Fannin Jr. or Utah State wideout Jalen Royals would be prudent options.
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The free-agent class is also relatively weak, although Chris Godwin is an intriguing potentially lower-price, high-upside option.
Acquire more man-coverage capable cornerbacks
Sean McDermott’s defense is predicated on playing zone with rotating safeties at the snap, keeping everything in front, making quarterbacks question their decision-making, which gives the defensive line just enough time to generate pressure. And it works against 95% of quarterbacks.
The problem for Buffalo is that Mahomes is in the top 1% of all quarterbacks. He typically dices zone coverage because of his smarts and arm strength, so teams are forced to play man against him, and with his mobility, the Chiefs’ offensive efficiency can actually increase. In four career playoff games against the Bills, Mahomes is 97 of 131 — 74% completion rate — for 1,163 yards, which equates to 8.87 yards per, with nine touchdown passes without an interception.
The Bills losing Christian Benford to a concussion early in the AFC Championship game was a brutal loss, and his replacement, former first-rounder Elam, was disastrous attempting to play man and was overly conservative in zone. In critical situations against the Chiefs, the Bills need an eraser who can lock down in man. Think L’Jarius Sneed for the Chiefs during their past two Super Bowl victories.
In the draft, Texas’ Jahdae Barron has man-coverage chops — while doubling as a keen zone defender. East Carolina’s Shavon Revel, and Ole Miss’ Trey Amos are more man specialists with intimidating physiques on the outside.
In free agency, there are viable options, including D.J. Reed, Charvarius Ward, Byron Murphy and Jonathan Jones. Doubling up in both the draft and free agency would be a prudent move.