Oklahoma appears to be bucking a downward trend for Midwest economy

For December, Oklahoma had a 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports increase of $1.1 billion — a 21% gain from the same period in 2023.

Ernie Goss, director of Omaha, Nebraska-based Creighton University’s Economic Forecasting Group, did not outline why Oklahoma had such a big jump in exports.

But his numbers show that the state’s “business conditions index” climbed while most other states’ did not.

His regional business conditions index, which uses the same methodology as the national Institute for Supply Management and ranges between 0 and 100 — with 50 representing growth neutral — slumped to 48.7 from 49.6 in November. The index vacillated slightly above and below growth neutral every month in 2024.

States included in the Creighton survey are Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.

Oklahoma wasn’t alone in export increases, he said. According to the latest U.S. International Trade Administration data, the regional economy expanded 2024 year-to-date manufacturing exports by $922.3 million from the same period in 2023 for a 1.2% gain.

But, Goss said, “manufacturers in the nation and region continue to shed jobs.”

“In terms of impending economic threats, … approximately 45% of supply managers expect a recession in the first half of 2025,” he added.

The Mid-America report is produced independently of the national ISM.

But in Oklahoma, he said, the state’s business conditions index for December climbed to 52.7 from 50.2 in November.

Components of the overall December index for Oklahoma were: new orders at 46.6; production or sales at 49.6; delivery lead time at 57.1; inventories at 55.8; and employment at 54.6.

Regionally, the December employment index improved slightly to a weak 46.4 from November’s 44.4.

“Despite falling manufacturing employment, approximately one in five firms reported labor shortages,” the report says.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that regional manufacturing employment fell by 4,500 jobs (-0.4%) in 2024. During the same period, U.S. manufacturing employment sank by 73,000 jobs, or -0.6%.

• “Inflation is the hidden tax the government imposes.”
• “The campaign promises around DOGE and others are lost when we continue to raise the debt ceiling!”
• “We are so fortunate to have a new administration that loves this country and is willing to make the needed sacrifices for the people and future generations. That said, our economy will flourish if given the opportunity.”
• “2025 will be a correction year with better things to come if we focus on the American people and its moral majority.”
• “The year is ending strong, and we expect to carry this through the first quarter.”
• “Prices for corrugated (steel) are all over the map. Softness in certain market areas.”
• “National suppliers announced price increases in lock step. Buyer beware.”

Confidence: Looking ahead six months, economic optimism, as captured by the December Business Confidence Index, sank to 52.8 from 55.6 in November.

“Approximately 45% of supply managers expect worsening business conditions over the next six months,” Goss said.

Trade: The relatively strong dollar continues to make U.S. goods less competitively priced abroad and pushed the export index below growth neutral, but December’s 45.8 was up slightly from November’s 45.5. A weak regional economy slowed purchases from abroad as the import reading slumped to 42.1 from November’s 49.1.

The Creighton Economic Forecasting Group has conducted the monthly survey of supply managers in nine states since 1994 to produce leading economic indicators of the Mid-America economy.