Who is the most dangerous player in the NFL playoffs this year?
USAT NFL Reporter Tyler Dragon shares who NFL teams should look out for this postseason.
Sports Seriously
The 2025 NFL playoffs begin Saturday with a game that is becoming more and more of a tradition each year. The Houston Texans are hosting the first wild-card playoff game and this time they will face the Los Angeles Chargers in a battle of up-and-coming teams.
Houston is in the postseason for the second consecutive year to open up C.J. Stroud‘s career. The team hasn’t enjoyed the same offensive success as during the duo’s first year together, but Nico Collins is still an explosive pass-catching threat while the Texan’s pass rush continues to make strides thanks to Will Anderson‘s growth.
Meanwhile, the Chargers made the postseason in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as Los Angeles’ head coach. He, Greg Roman and Jesse Minter have quickly reshaped the team, beginning with the run game and defense before getting Justin Herbert comfortable in the offense.
The result has been a very competitive season for the Chargers. While they have just a 3-5 record against teams that are .500 or better, they could be poised to earn a key win over a Texans team with a 1-5 record against the same level of competition.
What are the best bets for an evenly matched Texans vs. Chargers game? Here are the prop bets and anytime touchdown scorers to trust in the NFL’s first wild-card game of 2025.
NFL best bets today: Texans vs. Chargers playoffs
All odds are via BetMGM as of Friday.
Joe Mixon OVER 70.5 rushing yards (-115)
The Chargers defense has generally performed well under first-year defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, but they are average against the run. They ranked 14th in the league, allowing 117.5 yards per game but allowed 136.9 rushing yards per game over in the eight games before their Week 18 stonewalling of the Las Vegas Raiders.
That should give Mixon a chance to have a big day. He hasn’t eclipsed 70 rushing yards since his Week 13 game against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but he has had just 17 total touches over his last two games. That should give him fresh legs for this playoff matchup.
Mixon also has dealt with a nagging ankle injury this season, so his light usage in recent weeks should give him a better chance to return to his early-season form. He averaged 88.7 rushing yards per game across his first 10 contests before his recent downturn, so expect a bounce-back in a favorable matchup.
Ladd McConkey OVER 5.5 receptions (-125)
The Texans have been an interesting team against wide receivers this season. While Houston has allowed the eighth-fewest receptions league-wide (188), teams have thrown to wide-outs 334 times against the Texans, good for the seventh-most in the NFL.
That should position McConkey for a big day. The Chargers’ top receiver has been targeted 112 times this season – 21 more than the second-most-targeted receiver despite only playing in 15 games – and McConkey has averaged 8.6 targets per game with 6.6 catches and 90.2 receiving yards over his last five games.
With both J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards on the Chargers’ injury report nursing minor ailments, the team may not generate as much with its running game as it might hope. That could spark Justin Herbert to continue throwing the ball more, especially if Los Angeles ends up trailing at any point in this game.
If so, expect McConkey to continue to be his top target and easily surpass this number. If you’re afraid he won’t get the receiving volume needed for this to hit, don’t be scared to back his yardage total (72.5 yards) or him to score a touchdown during the game (+135).
Justin Herbert OVER 1.5 passing TDs (+100)
Speaking of Herbert, the Chargers seemed to unleash him at the end of the 2024 NFL season. He attempted at least 30 passes in seven of his final eight regular-season games and logged multiple passing touchdowns in four consecutive games to close the season.
The Texans allowed 31 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks during the 2024 NFL season, good for the third-most in the NFL behind only the Carolina Panthers (35) and Atlanta Falcons (34). Part of the reason for this? Houston plays an aggressive style of defense in the secondary that leads to many interceptions (19, second-most in the NFL) but allows a lot of big plays.
As such, Herbert should have a good chance to keep his streak of multi-touchdown games going.
Quentin Johnston anytime TD (+250)
The Texans haven’t just had trouble keeping quarterbacks out of the end-zone this year. They have had issues against receivers as well. Their 21 touchdowns allowed to the position are tied for the second-most in the NFL.
That makes backing a Chargers receiver to score a good bet. McConkey deserves consideration for that honor, but Johnston looks like the better value pick. He has eight touchdowns this season on just 55 catches (good for a 14.5 touchdown percentage) and is fresh off a career-best 13-catch outing against the Raiders.
Johnston hasn’t scored since Week 15, but his touchdowns have typically come in bunches with mini-droughts in between. His size and speed could be difficult for Houston to contain if it’s focused on McConkey, so don’t be surprised if Johnston continues to show improvement in the playoffs, especially if Josh Palmer can’t play because of a foot injury.
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