Yes, Josh Allen is the betting favorite. But Lamar Jackson still might have something to say about who wins the MVP award for 2024.
Jackson, the league MVP in 2019 and 2023, has had another tremendous season. Thirty-seven touchdown passes against four interceptions. Passer rating north of 120. A pair of games with five touchdown passes. On top of that, 765 rushing yards and three more touchdowns.
Lamar can put on another Christmas Day show in Houston, like he did last year against the 49ers. And if the Steelers lose to the Chiefs and the Ravens beat the Texans, Baltimore will take a one-game lead in the AFC North. If Baltimore wins the division and if Jackson continues to generate the kind of numbers he has through 15 games, why not Lamar?
Here’s hoping the voters don’t allow the odds to sway them. If it’s close in their minds between Allen and Jackson (or whoever else emerges as a finalist), the fact that Allen is the favorite could break the tie, consciously or not.
People don’t want to be regarded as stupid. There’s safety in doing the predictable thing, if/when the votes come to light. (All voters should disclose their ballots.) It’s hard to look like a moron if the voter votes for the player who is the betting favorite.
The simple reality is that the whole thing is qualitative. We’ll focus on the specific objective statistics that support our subjective preferences. Or we’ll come up with our own interpretation of “valuable” to justify the choices. Or we’ll seek out the safe harbor of the betting odds.
The betting odds ultimately mean nothing, and hopefully none of the voters will be influenced by them. If the gamblers end up guessing wrong, that’s their problem.
Besides, why would anyone bet on the outcome of a vote from 50 members of the media? That alone is just cause for losing your money.
Depending on what Lamar does today, everyone who bet money on Josh Allen might.