History has shown us that divisional matchups could end up closer than expected, but you couldn’t tell that from many of the Week 16 NFL odds. Bills vs. Patriots has Buffalo favored by 14 points in the largest of the Week 16 NFL lines and one of the biggest NFL spreads of the season. Additionally, Bengals vs. Browns (+9.5, 46.5) in a game that could see Dorian Thompson-Robinson start for Cleveland and Lions vs. Bears (+7, 47.5) in a game where Jahmyr Gibbs could be a workhorse running back have sky-high Week 15 NFL betting lines. How much should these teams’ previous matchups this season influence your Week 16 NFL bets?
This will be the first meeting between the Bills and Patriots, while the teams favored in Browns vs. Bengals and Bears vs. Lions won their first encounters. Cincinnati also covered versus Cleveland, while the underdog Bears covered versus Detroit. Sunday ends with Buccaneers vs. Cowboys (+4, 47.5) on Sunday Night Football. Which sides warrant your Week 16 NFL picks, and where should you lean with the non-divisional contests this week? All of the updated Week 16 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine’s advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and NFL predictions you need to make the best Week 16 NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 27-11 betting hot streak on top-rated NFL picks this year. Longer term, it is on a 207-139 roll on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season and a 61-32 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick’em players four times during that span. Anyone following at sportsbooks and on betting apps has seen strong returns.
Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 16 NFL odds and NFL betting lines and locked in betting picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.
Top Week 16 NFL predictions
We can tell you one of the model’s strongest Week 16 NFL picks is that the Bengals (-9.5, 46.5) cover the spread at home against the Browns. Cincinnati is clinging to playoff hopes thanks to a season for the ages from Joe Burrow. In Sunday’s 10-point win over Tennessee, Burrow tied a post-merger NFL record with his sixth straight game with 250-plus passing yards and three-plus passing touchdowns. He leads the league in yards (3,977) and touchdowns (36), while Ja’Marr Chase is on pace to win the receiving triple crown by leading in receptions, yards and touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Cleveland is coming off a historically poor outing as, in a 14-point loss to Kansas City, the Browns committed six turnovers. Their minus-six turnover margin was their first in over 30 years, and the team has now had at least three giveaways in four straight games. The Browns are the first team in five years to have three-plus turnovers in four consecutive games, and the defense isn’t making up for those lost possessions as Cleveland has the third-fewest takeaways in the league. The model has Cincy winning by double-digits as it has the Bengals prevailing versus the spread well over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
Another one of its Week 16 NFL predictions: the Jets (+3, 47) cover at home versus the Rams in well over 50% of simulations. Cross-country flights seem to affect West Coast teams more so than East Coast teams, and the Rams have lost five of their last eight games in the Eastern Time Zone. The Rams do get a few extra days of rest to prepare for this trip as they played last Thursday, but that may actually hurt their chances of covering. Since the 2022 season, Los Angeles is just 1-6 against the spread when it has a rest advantage.
As for the Jets, Aaron Rodgers is quietly on one of the best stretches of his Hall of Fame career as he has a 13:1 TD:INT over his last seven games. He’s coming off a season-high passer rating of 120, tied a season-high with three touchdowns, and the week before he set a season-high with 339 passing yards. With the Rams having a bottom-10 defense in terms of passing touchdowns allowed and yards per completion allowed, Rodgers should continue his hot play on Sunday, which enables New York to cover. The model also says the Under hits 60% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.
How to make Week 16 NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 16 NFL schedule and just revealed four underdogs that outright win, potentially giving you a huge payday. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So what NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which four underdogs should you lock in now? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned well over $7,000, and find out.
Week 16 NFL betting odds, lines, live spreads, scores
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Where to bet NFL games
Here are some of the sportsbooks to bet on NFL games this week, along with the various NFL sportsbook promos they currently offer.