Juan Soto reportedly agreed to terms with the New York Mets on Sunday on the richest contract in Major League Baseball history: a 15-year pact worth $765 million with no deferrals that could clear the $800 million mark depending on certain circumstances. (Soto can opt out after the fifth season, at which point the Mets can void that mechanism by adding an additional $40 million to the remainder of his deal.)
Between Soto’s decision and the official start of the Winter Meetings, we here at CBS Sports figured this would be a good time to “reset” our free-agent rankings by highlighting the top 10 remaining players and guessing where they end up. (We’ve engaged in guesswork about most of these players’ contracts here.) Keep in mind that our rankings are based in part on expected average annual value, which is to say that’s why certain players (e.g. Roki Sasaki, Max Scherzer) might be lower or higher than you would’ve expected based on pure expected output.
Additionally, remember that this exercise is more of an art than a science.
Burnes has been tied to all the high rollers, suggesting this could end any number of ways. We’re giving the edge here to the Giants on speculative grounds. We think that new top executive Buster Posey might have a different appetite for risk than most modern general managers — see the Willy Adames signing. That, in turn, might make him more willing than his peers to invest heavily in a front-of-the-rotation starter.
Bregman figures to benefit the most from the weekend signings of Soto and Adames. He’s now clearly the best offensive player available, making him an attractive Plan B for the parties who missed out. (It doesn’t hurt Bregman’s market that he’s signaled he’d be open to changing positions in the right situation.) We flipped a coin here to decide between the Yankees and Red Sox.
Fried is a high-quality southpaw too often overshadowed this winter by the presences of Burnes and Blake Snell. Rest assured, he’ll get his day in the sun soon enough. We flipped a coin to decide between the Yankees and Red Sox on Bregman. It only makes sense to give the other team the nod here.
4. Roki Sasaki, RHP: Dodgers
Sasaki is younger than 25 years old and has fewer than six years of professional experience, meaning he’s classified by MLB as an amateur free agent. That designation restricts his earning potential, limiting teams to offer only what they have in their international amateur free-agent bonus pool. Relatedly, Sasaki won’t sign until international bonus pools reset on Jan. 15, giving more teams more money to throw his way. The “wide open” nature of the bidding makes Sasaki the rare premium free agent who could (and should) draw interest from all teams. Even so, we’re sticking by the team long regarded as the favorites.
Flaherty’s market might be dictated by the downstream effects of where Burnes and Fried sign. As such, we’re tentatively penciling in the Red Sox doubling-up on top-10 free agents by pairing Bregman and Flaherty.
The Mets have already added two starting pitchers to their mix this offseason, inking Frankie Montas and Clay Holmes. Factor in the Soto signing and you might think they’d be done shopping near the top of the market. We have to imagine they’d still be open to reuniting with Manaea.
The Braves could stand to lose Max Fried to free agency and Charlie Morton to retirement. That makes them a natural fit for Eovaldi, who continues to chug along as a solidly above-average starting pitcher.
Alonso is a difficult free agent to place. We noted heading into the winter that the market tends to be unkind to his profile (that being a right-handed hitting and right-handed fielding first baseman), and there’s been no reason to pivot off that stance. The Nats should be in the market for pieces that can buttress their young core, and the uncertainty around Alonso’s market could drive him into a price they’re comfortable with
9. Max Scherzer, RHP: Tigers
The rumor mill has been quiet on Scherzer. Our assumption is that he’ll take a one-year deal with a probable contender after the dust settles on more in-demand free agents. At the risk of getting too cute here, we’ll go with him returning to one of his old haunts.
Kim, the best defensive infielder on the market, will miss at least the first chunk of the season after undergoing shoulder surgery to repair his labrum. That’s an unfortunate development in multiple respects: in addition to reducing his eventual contract, it makes it tougher for us to clock which team will be OK taking the risk that he returns rusty for the stretch run.