Liverpool, remarkably sitting atop both the Premier League and Champions League standings, will put their position atop the table to the test as they visit Girona in European play on Tuesday.
The Reds are enjoying a sensational run through the first half of the year under new manager Arne Slot, who has benefitted from the brilliant form of Mohamed Salah while working aging defensive star Virgil van Dijk back to his best.
While they are the only remaining perfect side through five Champions League matches to this point, they still have to finish the job, as they are just two points above second-place Inter and just five clear of eighth-placed AS Monaco who occupy the final Round of 16 qualifying position.
Girona, meanwhile, have taken a massive step back from the magical campaign last season, sitting 30th in the 36-team Champions League table with three measly points and blasted by Real Madrid 3-0 at home this past weekend.
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Girona vs. Liverpool prediction, odds
- Moneyline lean:Â Liverpool (-225 on BetMGM)
- Score prediction:Â Girona 0-2Â Liverpool
Girona aren’t as bad as the weekend’s 3-0 defeat against Real Madrid suggested, but they also haven’t been nearly the menace to opponents that last year’s team proved.
Liverpool, meanwhile, have been utterly brilliant at every turn. While a 3-3 draw at Newcastle days ago is proof they are still fallible, it’s also proof that a Herculean effort is required to land a blow. Girona just don’t seem to have that in them at this moment, and it will take Liverpool beating themselves to end up with anything less than a Reds win on the road.
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| Â | BetMGM (USA) |
| Girona win | +525 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Liverpool win | -225 |
| Both teams to score |
Y: -145 N:Â +100 |
| Over / Under 2.5 goals |
O: -190 U: +135 |
| Liverpool -1.5 goals |
+110 |
| Girona +1.5 goals |
-160 |
Girona vs. Liverpool match facts
- Date:Â Tuesday, December 10, 2024
- Kickoff Time:Â 6:45Â p.m. local (12:45Â p.m. ET / 9:45Â a.m. PT)
- Location:Â Municipal Stadium (Girona, Spain)
- Referee:Â Benoit Bastien (FRA)
- Last meeting:Â None (First meeting)
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Girona vs. Liverpool best bet
- Pick:Â Girona under 0.5 total goals
- Odds:Â +130 (BetMGM)
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Without the electric Artem Dovbyk up front, Girona look toothless in the attack. They’ve scored two goals in their last four games while being shut out thrice, seeing their overall season output plummet to seventh-best in La Liga on goals scored and eighth on xG.
Cristhian Stuani remains an all-time super sub up front, but there’s little ferocity to the starting XI. Neither Abel Ruiz nor Bojan Miovski have been able to provide danger at the No. 9 position, and Donny van de Beek has not enjoyed the revival campaign he hoped for having moved away from Man United.
While we considered taking the overall under 2.5 goals at +135, there’s always risk of a Liverpool attacking explosion to that play. While there’s certainly ways this can falter as well, the feel is that there’s less risk of Girona scoring on this stout Reds back line which has shut out Man City and Real Madrid in recent weeks.
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Girona vs. Liverpool prop bet
Mohamed Salah has always been a fantastic, world-class player, but there’s one thing to his game this season that has been missing from his profile the last few campaigns: efficiency.
The Egyptian superstar has, over the past three Premier League seasons, underperformed his expected goals tally significantly, to the tune of 60 goals on 65.44 xG leading to a -5.44 differential while relying on volume more than finishing quality. It’s actually been even worse in theory, as his post-shot value is more like 53.02, indicating he could have profited even less if not for the benefit of some poor goalkeeping.
This year, that’s been completely reversed. He has collected 13 Premier League goals on 10.46 xG for a +2.54 differential mark. He’s finishing with aplomb, and should be able to lead the charge again against a Girona team that’s been leaky but also unlucky at the back.
Salah has scored and assisted a goal in seven of 19 matches this season (three on the road) across Premier League and European play, over a third of the time. With an implied probability of 22% based on the odds here, there’s real value of Salah terrorizing a struggling team. The only thing that reliably beats an unlucky defense is an efficient goalscorer.