Around one year ago at this time, the Las Vegas Raiders were supposedly buoyant.
The malignant approach of fired head coach Josh McDaniels had been exorcised from the franchise, victory cigars were a thing again, players felt heard, and Las Vegas team owner Mark Davis seemed to have a renewed pep of optimism in his step. Even with a subpar 2-3 record in the P.M. (post-McDaniels) era, things were starting to feel right again heading into mid-December of 2023. There was hope. And as the remainder of the season unfurled, it seemed well-founded.
The Raiders and interim head coach Antonio Pierce would take McDaniels’ 3-5 start and marry it to a 5-4 finish. Rookie quarterback Aidan O’Connell would replace the benched Jimmy Garoppolo and look like a feasible project. Even skeptical wideout Davante Adams was willing to give the situation another chance. It all had the makings of something with … well, it had makings. That was a start.
On Sunday, that start finally and fully cratered. Frankly, the implosion began at the turn into October, when the 2-2 Raiders began an epic descent to the depths of the AFC, by virtue of a losing streak that reached nine games with Sunday’s 28-13 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a defeat that left Las Vegas sitting at 2-11 and tied with the New York Giants for the worst record in the NFL — but also without O’Connell, who appeared to suffer a significant leg injury in the loss. And if the NFL Draft were to begin today, the Raiders would own the No. 1 overall pick on tiebreakers and with significant gusto.
That 2023 post-McDaniels buoyancy? The 2024 Raiders are a cinder block locked in a safe buried under the Titanic.
Now that I think about it, strike the previous assessment. This plummet to an all-too-familiar depth didn’t start in October. It began last offseason, when the Raiders knew they had a lingering quarterback problem on their hands and answered it by signing journeyman Gardner Minshew II to a two-year, $25 million contract. It was a bridge starter deal in March that ultimately constructed a bridge to … nowhere. That is unless the ultimate plan was to groom O’Connell — a 2023 fourth-round draft pick with just enough talent to lose his starting job to Minshew — into something greater than anyone anticipated.
I don’t think that was the plan. I think the Raiders’ brass, including general manager Tom Telesco, believed Michael Penix Jr. would fall far enough in the 2024 draft to make his selection viable on their own draft board. What the front office didn’t anticipate was that Penix had a higher premium on him in other organizations, and that the 2024 pool of quarterbacks was exponentially better than what was coming in the 2025 pipeline.
If we’re going to get brutally honest about the Raiders, we’d begin with Davis. But that’s a story for another time. We’ll get there at some point. Instead, let’s bypass Davis for the time being and point straight to that quarterback spot. Rather than dredge up why Las Vegas didn’t act more aggressively in what might turn out to be a historically great quarterback draft in 2024, let’s accept that their top pick — tight end Brock Bowers — is an immense mismatch cornerstone to build around. And let’s look at what the Raiders’ options are.
First, let’s clean up a little bit of reporting chaos surrounding the QB situation. There have been competing claims about whether or not Davis mandated the selection of a quarterback in the next NFL Draft. After speaking to a pair of sources inside the team, this is what I have been told: Davis wants some kind of meaningful plan and long-term resolution at the quarterback spot. As of now, that has not included directly telling the front office what the Raiders have to do or who they have to draft. However, there’s clearly a perception inside the Raiders that Davis isn’t satisfied with the status quo at the position and believes this next offseason will be a key pivot point for the franchise.
With that in mind, here are two primary points that I have been directed toward.
First, pay attention to the influence of minority owner Tom Brady
While Brady has only a 5 percent ownership stake in the Raiders, I’ve been told a significant verbal proviso from Davis in the agreement for Brady buying into the franchise was that he will weigh in heavily on the football operations side of the ledger. And a large part of that responsibility will be to help fix — or at the very least, brutally assess — all the moves surrounding the QB depth chart. Davis is looking for an honesty broker when it comes to cutting through the noise. Unlike Telesco, Pierce or anyone else offering an opinion, Brady doesn’t have the looming concern about his job status. He has the background to offer a weighty assessment and the freedom to be blunt about it. He doesn’t have to fear Davis’ vantage. And from what I’ve been told Davis absolutely wants to hear it from someone who isn’t worried about being fired.
As one source put it, “It’s not like we’ve had meetings with Brady sitting in them. But [Brady] isn’t a figurehead. [Davis] obviously respects him. This is what he wants and it’s the whole point [of Brady’s ownership]. [Brady] will impact some decisions, or, he’s going to impact Mark’s opinion. It’s the same thing at this point. It’s not like [the front office] doesn’t matter. But it’s not like Mark will blow Tom off when it comes to the quarterbacks and where it goes — not happening. It’s the opposite. Mark will ask him, ‘What do you think?’ and then that’s what Mark thinks. … What Tom will say about quarterbacks, I’d bet you that’s what goes. That’s what I think will happen. Maybe I’m wrong. We’ll see. But I think who [Tom] likes, Mark likes. We’ll see. It’s gonna be a ride.”
If that’s reality, then Brady might as well be the person selecting the Raiders’ quarterback for 2025. And maybe he will be.
With that in mind, if the Raiders end up with the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, it’s worth examining the solidly long relationship that he has had with Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who Brady has known on a personal basis going all the way back to Shedeur’s days as a nationally recruited high school player in Texas. Over the years, Brady has trained, counseled and repeatedly had glowing reviews of Sanders’ talent and work ethic. And it’s worth noting that Sanders also fits Brady’s ideal: A quarterback who took his time to learn and develop his craft inside a program. Yes, Sanders did it in at two different colleges, following his father Deion Sanders — first at Jackson State and then at Colorado — but he also could have entered the draft after his 2023 season and been selected inside the first two rounds. But he returned to Colorado instead, sharpening a résumé that will make him a hammer lock first-round pick in the 2025 selection process.
And not that it matters — but it kind of does with Shedeur Sanders — Deion has appeared on video telling Pierce “draft those Sanders boys,” referring to Shedeur and his brother, Colorado safety Shilo Sanders, who is also projected as a late-round selection.
It’s hard to ignore that there’s a lot of traction to all of this. If the New York Giants don’t end up with the No. 1 pick in the draft — which, at this point, the Giants are favored to land that spot — then it puts the Raiders squarely in position to take a player with whom Davis has had an interesting interaction … and who Brady clearly likes.
This takes us to the second point that I’ve been directed to.
Second, Mark Davis is going to be tight with money, but there is ample space to build around a rookie QB
Realistically, some other names are going to come up in the Raiders’ effort to resolve their quarterback problem. The Minnesota Vikings’ Sam Darnold — if he hits free agency, which is arguable at this stage — is a player Las Vegas should be extremely interested in.
If he continues on his current trajectory, the Atlanta Falcons’ Kirk Cousins is another capable veteran starter who could find himself available this next offseason. Aaron Rodgers? His name will get circulated.
One thing I want everyone to keep in mind about all of these other names: At this stage, they’re all more expensive than a rookie quarterback. Unless the Vikings sign Darnold and then trade current rookie J.J. McCarthy — or the Falcons suddenly choose to move on from Penix, which seems less likely than ever — the best options on the table are going to be expensive. Acquiring either McCarthy or Penix on a rookie deal would be great, but I will bet both have evaluations similar to Sanders by the end of this draft rotation. That means you draft Sanders, rather than complicate your life.
What about Darnold in free agency? If he finishes the season strong, he’s going to come off at $40 million per year (and maybe $50 million by the end of this season) in open-market bidding. Cousins via trade? I highly doubt Atlanta would be willing to eat the majority of his accelerated salary-cap hit just to get to Penix, so he would also be fairly expensive. Rodgers? It’s not even worth breaking down his candidacy. There’s no reason for the Raiders to sign Rodgers and no reason for Rodgers to play for Las Vegas. It would be a catastrophe for both sides at this point.
The likeliest path — from what I was told from two Raiders sources — is targeting potential extensions inside the team and then prioritizing the selection of the best rookie quarterback, followed by a penitent development of the roster. Could that mean a pivot away from Pierce as head coach after only one season? That all depends on how the 2024 campaign ends and also the available options for pairing with a new starting quarterback.
What’s clear at this point is that there is no defined, locked-in plan. There are still four games to be played, including against a Falcons team this weekend that is struggling to tread water in the NFC and a Los Angeles Chargers franchise in the Week 18 season finale that may need a win to make the postseason. Between that, two games against the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints that are winnable, but also capable of pushing the Raiders off the No. 1 pick.
It’s a difficult position to be in for this franchise. But also one that took root long ago. And at this point, the Raiders have nobody to blame but ownership, which should have seen this coming.