Touchdown, Buffalo!
Bills quarterback Josh Allen fits a pass into the end zone where only receiver Mack Hollins can catch it, and the Bills now lead 21-3 with just 41 seconds to play before halftime.
Hollins generated retweets and plenty of conversation when he walked into tonight’s game barefoot amid the snow, wearing a mad scientist costume. Thanks to his touchdown, he’ll be remembered for more than just his walk-in.
Another 49ers star sidelined
Along with running back Christian McCaffrey, who has been deemed questionable to return with a knee injury, the 49ers have another hole on the other side the ball, too.
Star linebacker Fred Warner is also questionable to return, with cramps. Warner’s 84 total tackles are a team-high, and 17 more than the next-closest teammate. Losing Warner would be devastating for this defense.
Buffalo breaks a big score
Is there enough footing in the snow? There was for Bills running back James Cook, who took a hard cut at the line of scrimmage and burst up the sideline for a 64-yard touchdown and 14-3 Bills lead. That was about as bad as a two-play sequence could have gone for the 49ers, who missed a 45-yard field goal to spoil a 6-minute, 48-yard drive, then watched, just a single play later, as Buffalo added to its lead.
Christian McCaffrey limps off
San Francisco’s star running back, around whom the entire 49ers offense is oriented, limped to the sideline and went into a medical tent early in the second quarter after taking a toss and immediately looking like he was unable to accelerate and slid before he could be hit.
McCaffrey missed the first two months of the season with Achilles tendinitis in both legs and any non-contact injury raises the level of concern.
Buffalo scores!
The Bills indeed stick with their ground game to answer the 49ers and score a touchdown at the end of the first quarter to lead, 7-3. Buffalo ran five consecutive times to end a 13-play drive, with Ray Davis punctuating his score from five yards out with a dive into the snow, past the pylon. That drive took more than 7 minutes.
How much will these teams lean on the run?
We’ve already seen a few players slip while running in motion in the slick, snowy conditions during the first quarter. Will that dissuade these teams away from the passing game? The Bills’ season high for rushing attempts is 34. Quarterback Josh Allen’s season high for rushes is 12. Will both of those marks be surpassed tonight?
49ers score first!
San Francisco leads 3-0 with 7:47 to play in the first quarter in snowy Buffalo. Their drive needed nine plays to go 48 yards, and you have to wonder if longer, grind-it-out drives will be a template for offense in this game should big plays become hard to come by due to the conditions.
Bills stall on opening drive
They might be comfortable playing in snow, but the Bills didn’t look ready to go on their opening drive. After two minutes, they punt to give the ball back to the 49ers, who get quarterback Brocky Purdy back after missing one game with a shoulder injury.
Playoff watch in the AFC
One of the hottest teams in the entire NFL, the Bills are in control in the AFC East.
- Bills 9-2
- Dolphins 5-7
- Jets 3-9
- Patriots 3-10
Playoff watch in the NFC
The 49ers enter tonight 5-6 and in last place in the NFC West, though that could change with a win.
- Seattle 7-5
- Arizona 6-6
- Rams 6-6
- 49ers 5-6
Christian McCaffrey is back … but Niners offense still not 100%
San Francisco ranks in the NFL’s top 10 in total offense (384.5 yds/gm — 4th), passing offense (246.2 pass yds/gm — 4th), and rushing offense (138.4 rush yds/gm — 7th).
However, the 49ers are 13th in points per game (23.6), scoring 30 points just once over the last five games (Week 8 vs DAL) after scoring 30+ in three of the first six games of the season (and in nine of 17 regular season games last season).
San Francisco is tied for the 5th-worst red zone offense in the NFL (50%) and has scored on just 60% of goal-to-go scenarios (T-3rd worst in the NFL). Last season, they led the NFL in red zone offense (67.2%) and was 4th in goal-to-go (82.7%)
Bills’ Allen avoiding turnovers
While Josh Allen is on pace for his fewest pass TD and passing yards since 2019, he’s been more efficient this season. He has thrown 18 TD passes to 5 INT — his 3.6 TD/INT rate would be his best since 2020 (3.7) — and a passer rating of 98.2, which would be his highest rating since he had a 107.2 rating in 2020.
Former MVP candidate still returning to form
After missing the season’s first eight games while recovering from Achilles tendon injuries in both legs, 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey has played the last three games, getting 43 total carries and catching 13 passes.
He has averaged 3.5 yards per rush, down from his career average of 4.7, and 10.2 yards per catch, an increase over his career average of 8.5.
McCaffrey’s dual-threat presence has opened up the 49ers offense since his arrival in San Francisco in 2022 but hasn’t had the same effect this season partly because just as injuries sidelined him for months, numerous dynamic 49ers weapons such as tight end George Kittle, receiver Deebo Samuel, receiver Brandon Aiyuk and quarterback Brock Purdy have been hurt and missed periods throughout the season.
Strength vs. strength
The 49ers were frustrated by their rush defense in their Week 12 loss at Green Bay because their inability to get stops in the first half was so out of character.
The 49ers have allowed only four rushes of 20-plus yards this season, tied for the fourth-fewest in the NFL, and just one rush of 40-plus yards, which ties for second-best.
Since Buffalo started its winning streak six weeks ago the Bills rank behind only league-leading Philadelphia in expected points added per rush, and rushing success rate.
For all of the attention spent on the strength of quarterback Josh Allen’s arm, the Bills have gotten it done on the ground.
Allen’s rushing success and yardage have dipped this season, but the eye test shows that his legs have been critical to the Bills’ turnaround after starting 3-2. Allen’s 26-yard scramble for a touchdown on Nov. 17 on 4th-and-2 derailed Kansas City’s perfect season.
Snowy night for football
Before the Buffalo Bills could host San Francisco in prime time Sunday in Orchard Park, N.Y., the team sent out a message to its fanbase.
Come to Highmark Stadium, and please bring a shovel.
Anticipating several feet of snow ahead of the NBC “Sunday Night Football” matchup between the Bills (9-2) and 49ers (5-6), and with the National Weather Service predicting temperatures in the low 20s during game time, the team asked its fans to help clear snow from the stadium. (Approved shovelers would be paid $20 per hour, with food and hot beverages also provided.)
Shovelers were tasked with cleaning up a stadium covered by a whiteout, to open up walking lanes so that fans could later watch the Bills open up running lanes for quarterback Josh Allen. Given the stadium’s location near the east end of Lake Erie, the Bills often play in adverse weather; just last year, the team also asked fans to help shovel snow out of its stands before a playoff game against Pittsburgh.
Meanwhile, New York Governor Kathy Hochul on Sunday announced that road crews from the state’s transportation department had been assigned to clear roads near Highmark Stadium, and that tow trucks would be stationed around the stadium to help clear incidents as quickly as possible, according to TV station WGRZ.
“With tonight’s kickoff in our sights, we are doing everything we can to clear roads, assess damage and provide state and local partners with the resources they need,” Hochul said.
Allen aiming for first MVP award
Bills QB Josh Allen is again playing at a high level this season and enters this week as the favorite to win his first career MVP award. Allen is looking to become just the 3rd Buffalo Bill to win the award, joining RBs O.J. Simpson (1973) and Thurman Thomas (1991).
Purdy’s hardest season
After going 17-4 in his first 21 regular season starts over the 2022 and 2023 seasons and making the Pro Bowl last year, 49ers QB Brock Purdy is 5-5 in 10 starts this year.
He has been plagued by inconsistency and is on pace for a career-high 12 interceptions. Purdy had 2+ total TD in each of his last five games played, with 7 pass TD and 4 rush TD over that span. However, he also has 4 INT over that span (3 in Week 7 loss vs KC) and had his fewest pass yards of the season (159) in Week 11 vs Seattle.
49ers and Bills both still trying to get over the hump
Buffalo and San Francisco have been two of the best teams in the NFL over the last six years, ranking second and tied for third among NFL teams in total wins over that span.
Buffalo and Kansas City are the only teams to make the playoffs each of the last five seasons, while San Francisco is one of five other teams to reach the playoffs four times over that span (also Baltimore, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Tampa Bay).
Despite their success, both teams have come up short on the biggest stage. The Bills have reached the Divisional Round each of the last four seasons (KC is the only other team to do so) but Buffalo has made the AFC Championship Game just once (2020 season) and has not reached the Super Bowl over this stretch.
Buffalo has never won the Super Bowl and last appeared in the Super Bowl in the 1993 season (the final of four straight Super Bowl losses).
Buffalp is tied with Minnesota as the only franchises to reach four Super Bowls without winning a title. Three of Buffalo’s last four playoff exits came against the Chiefs (2020 AFC Championship Game, 2021 & 2023 Divisional Rd.), with the other coming in the 2022 Divisional Round. vs. Cincinnati.
The 49ers have reached the Super Bowl twice over this span — in the 2019 and 2023 seasons — both times losing to the Chiefs. San Francisco also reached the NFC Championship Game in the 2021 (lost at Los Angeles Rams) and 2022 (lost at Philadelphia) seasons.
49ers coming off rare lopsided loss
Facing the surging Bills is hard enough, but the 49ers are coming off a 38-10 loss at Green Bay that was the largest margin of defeat on the road since Kyle Shanahan became the coach in San Francisco in 2017.
It was their third-largest loss under Shanahan, overall.
Shanahan said he was “embarrassed” by the 49ers’ rush defense that allowed 169 yards, three second-half turnovers and season-high-tying nine penalties. The latter was a surprise after entering the game with only 46, among the league’s fewest.
Setting the scene
Predicted to be a potential Super Bowl matchup in the offseason, 49ers-Bills is now a game between one team that has lived up to that billing and another that has been too injured to do so.
Since starting 3-0, only to follow with two losses that rattled some confidence built during their start, the Bills have won six consecutive games to lead the AFC East by a wide margin over Miami.
Buffalo has outscored opponents by 106 points this season, the NFL’s second-highest scoring differential, trailing only Detroit (plus-177), thanks to a defense that is one of only nine across the league to hold opponents to less than 20 points per game on average.
Buffalo also has protected its MVP-candidate quarterback, Josh Allen, who has thrown for 18 touchdowns against five interceptions.
San Francisco, in contrast, has never found a stretch this season where things have settled down, having yet to win consecutive games all season. With star back Christian McCaffrey hurt the first eight weeks and multiple receivers injured for various stretches, the 49ers have gone from averaging 28.9 points per game last season, third-best, to 23.6 this season, which ranks 13th.