Tulane’s loss against Memphis has major impact on College Football Playoff picture, clearing race for Big 12

College football’s final week claimed its first major victim Thursday night, as No. 17 Tulane fell 34-24 at home against Memphis. Though the result doesn’t knock the Green Wave out of the American Athletic Conference Championship Game — Tulane clinched a berth two weeks ago with a win against Navy — it did have major implications on a heated College Football Playoff race. 

Tulane’s loss virtually eliminated the possibility that two Group of Five teams could make the final 12-team field and all. Tulane quietly climbed the rankings and, especially with Army’s loss to Notre Dame in Week 13, put itself in a spot to potentially steal a bid if it could finish the year undefeated and win the AAC Championship Game. Obviously, that isn’t happening. The Big 12’s nightmare scenario was scary-good fun while it lasted. 

In that same vein, the Mountain West Conference was likely pleased with Memphis’ upset victory. It almost guarantees that the winner of the MWC Championship Game will represent the Group of Five in the College Football Playoff. 

More specifically, it insulates the conference from getting left out if Boise State loses. The Broncos have been in good standing all year and came in at No. 11 in the latest set of CFP Rankings. So long as they win out, they’re in. 

Boise State doesn’t know its opponent in the title game yet, but it’s shaping up to be No. 22 UNLV. All the Rebels have to do is beat 3-9 Nevada and they’ll have a rematch against Boise State. Given Tulane’s anticipated drop, a UNLV win in the MWC Championship Game would likely make it the highest-ranked Group of Five champion and, thus, put it in the College Football Playoff field. 

The Big 12 is also breathing a huge sigh of relief. At No. 17, Tulane ranked ahead of Iowa State, BYU, Kansas State and Colorado, all teams that still have a shot to make the Big 12 Championship Game. The only Big 12 team to place ahead of Tulane is Arizona State, which came in at No. 16 in Tuesday’s reveal. 

Given the selection committee’s ranking philosophy thus far, it wasn’t hard to envision a reality where Tulane, as the AAC champion, was ranked ahead of a potential Big 12 champion, stealing the fifth automatic bid and leaving the Big 12 entirely out of the final field in the process. Now, though, so long as the Big 12 avoids some chaos scenario that allows a three- or four-loss team to make the championship game, the eventual Big 12 champion is in a great spot to lock down an auto-bid. 

Additionally, teams on the CFP bubble should feel less concerned today about a possible bid thief. 

Tulane’s loss is also notable considering coach Jon Sumrall picked up a lot of steam this week as a likely top candidate for the North Carolina opening. Sumrall, CBS Sports reports, is expected to be picky.