With the holiday shopping season underway, analysts are looking to Walmart and Target for signs of what’s to come.
So far, the messages have been mixed.
Walmart reported sales at U.S. stores increased 5.3% during Q3, signaling confident customers and a strong economy. Target, however, had a disappointing third quarter, suggesting consumers are pulling back after struggling to keep up with years of inflation. The Minneapolis-based retailer now expects sales to remain flat in Q4.
Another way to gauge potential sales for the crucial winter holiday season is by inspecting what people are doing on each retailer’s website. Online shopping, after all, is growing in importance for both companies: Walmart noted its U.S. ecommerce business grew 22% in Q3; Target, meanwhile, saw digital sales rise 10.8%.
Looking at search data, however, Target seems to be on solid ground, while Walmart is losing it.
For example: Data from Stackline, an AI-enabled retail intelligence and activation platform, reveals searches for seasonal ornaments and accessories are slightly higher at Target over the past 13-week period than they were the same time in 2023. Although attracting a higher volume of searches overall, Walmart is far behind from the pace it set last year.
A similar story emerges when looking at the seasonal lighting category: Target’s 2024 search volume more or less aligns with 2023, while Walmart’s current numbers lag compared to last season.
As for holiday storage items, such as bins for wrapping paper and bags for Christmas trees, Target has, at times, outperformed Walmart this year.
Although browsing for products online isn’t the same as buying them, the two activities appear to overlap at a steady rate.
Survey results show 45% of consumers plan to shop only online between Black Friday and Cyber Monday, according to Stackline. Another 48% of people anticipate shopping both online and in-store, leaving just 7% committed to buying goods at brick-and-mortar locations only.