During hours on hold with insurers, in between cutting drywall and heaving waterlogged appliances outside, Shanell Ryan made jewelry.
That quiet time spent slipping golden vials of crushed sand and gems onto chains and earrings brought calm, but also hope. Every dollar Ryan earns by fulfilling online orders for her business, Beach Sand Babe Jewelry, is another dollar she and her husband can spend restoring their house on Anna Maria Island.
The holidays typically mark the start of the busy season for Florida retailers, who rely on an influx of visitors and snowbirds to make up for slow sales during the summer and peak hurricane season. U.S. retailers typically earn half their revenue during this month-long span of fervent shopping.
For businesses like Ryan’s that market toward tourists, there’s more ground to make up than ever.
Holiday earnings aren’t just a pleasant boost this year, said Ester Venouziou, who runs an upcoming festival called Shopapalooza that features hundreds of small businesses.
“It’s like, ‘Hey, we need this to make it,’“ Venouziou said. “A lot of people are digging through their own savings and personal funds, trying to keep their staffs working.”
But national forecasts show promising signs for businesses compared to years past. There’s a steady climb of shoppers and projections that they’ll spend more.
Local experts said Tampa Bay will see similar consumer trends that could help businesses return to normal.
What’s the general forecast?
JLL, a national real estate firm, found in a survey that consumers plan to spend more than last year on holiday gifts, experiences, dining and decorations — with an average budget of more than $1,250 per person.
The window between this week’s Black Friday and Christmas is tighter this year, with 26 days between the two events. As a result, 86% of respondents to JLL’s survey plan to begin shopping by the weekend after Thanksgiving.
Some lower- to middle-income households are buying despite financial stress, said Sean Snaith, an economist at University of Central Florida. Credit card debt hit an all-time high this month.
Deals are especially important to consumers. While low-cost retailer Walmart’s projections for holiday earnings are rosy, Target’s are more reserved.
Discount-centered days like Black Friday and next week’s Cyber Monday will drive demand, said Justin Greider, a Florida retail analyst at JLL. A record 183.4 million people are expected to shop around those days, up slightly from last year, according to a report from the National Retail Federation.
But there are signs of uncertainty. Holiday sales are expected to grow at a slower rate of 3.5% this year, compared to annual growth as high as 12.4% in 2021, per the retail federation. Employers are expected to hire fewer seasonal workers — between 400,000 and 500,000, relative to last year’s 509,000.
Consumers are also budgeting more toward experiences and dining — think holiday markets, light shows and fancy dinners — while gift-giving budgets have bumped up only slightly, Greider said.
“People aren’t buying living room sets at the same pace, but they are still spending on services,” Snaith said.
Will recent storms influence consumer behavior?
After employment numbers stayed mostly stable in October, experts are optimistic that holiday shopping in Tampa Bay will help the local economy return to normal.
For evidence, look to the aftermath of Hurricane Ian, Greider said. While some beachside businesses catering to tourists were destroyed and closed for good, survivors benefited from an uptick in sales in the storm’s aftermath.
A wave of federal recovery dollars, tourism spending and “shop local” admonitions brought attention, and consumers, to the beaches. An influx of temporary construction workers also lifted up the economy, Greider said.
Analysts aren’t concerned that the hurricanes will damage retail sales long-term, Greider said. He expects tourists to return in similar numbers this year, a “big bonus” for Tampa Bay during the holidays.
The return of snowbirds increases Florida’s resident population by one million. From January to March this year, 40.6 million people visited the state.
How can I support local businesses?
Venouziou with Shopapalooza hopes that consumers will be encouraged to shop small after back-to-back natural disasters, like during the pandemic.
“It feels like when there’s a time of crisis going on, there’s more of a push and support for local businesses,” she said.
Holiday markets like Shopapalooza, which runs this weekend, are a good place to start. More businesses than usual — around 380 — will participate, Venouziou said. Those with demolished storefronts are relying on pop-ups for sales.
Some other local markets include Grand Central District Christmas Market on Dec. 6, St. Petersburg’s Arts & Crafts Festival on Dec. 7, Water Street Holiday Promenade on Dec. 12 and Jingle Bell Bazaar at Ybor on Dec. 15. Check here for a full list.
Some local artisans, like Ryan, also sell online. Check Etsy and local Facebook pages for opportunities to shop small.