Where will Houston be in 15 years? Experts look at infrastructure concerns

HOUSTON, Texas (KTRK) — The Houston metro area could hit 9.6 million residents by 2040, according to the Houston-Galveston area council.

Officials say Houston is likely to be the third-largest city in the country.

“We are now reaching a kind of critical mass at which a few things like commute times become a moment at which you can no longer just kind of expand outward,” Gail Peter Borden, a University of Houston Professor of Architecture, explained.

Houston was never really planned the way most major cities are.

It developed after the Galveston hurricane in 1900 and just kept growing with few restrictions.

You can look back to our major and, frankly, not-so-major storms to see the impact of that uncontrolled expansion.

“All you gotta do is look at an aerial map of Houston over the last 50 years, and you realize we paved 50% of the like, 200-mile radius, and you’re like, ‘Yeah, the water had nowhere to go,'” Borden said.

Recent disasters, such as the Texas freeze of 2021, the Derecho in May, and Hurricane Beryl in July, have shown us the weaknesses of our energy grid and electricity distribution.

Wind and battery power have both increased in recent years and as of this year, our state, best known for its oil production, leads the nation in solar power.

“The diversification of energy sources is pivotal because with that comes issues of carbon (and) pollution,” Borden explained. “Are you keeping your foot on the accelerator of climate change?”

Last summer was Houston’s hottest on record.

According to the non-profit climate science research group Climate Central, the average summer temperature in Houston has increased by 4.5 degrees since the 1970s.

Since then, we now have eight more days a year above 100 degrees and 55 more days with above-normal temperatures.

“Because the sea level is rising, our shorelines are retreating, and places like Galveston and Bolivar are very, very low-lying flat coastlines,” explained Julia Wellner, a University of Houston Professor in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. “And so, you know, 10 millimeters per year may not sound like a very much in sea level rise, but that translates to 2, 3, 4, even 5 feet of shoreline loss per year depending on where you are.”

Our complex water systems are all connected, and our bayous erodes more with each heavy storm.

Infrastructure improvements will be part of our future if we want to stay above water.

“Our roads and bridges are designed to be above water. And as they are more and more frequently impacted by storms, they degrade more quickly,” Wellner said. “The decisions that we make now are pivotal towards the future. In that, it’s both an understanding of investment in self, towards what we can be as a city, but also building in the malleability, the kind of individual spirit, and the kind of opportunism that I think Texas was always founded on, and Houston has thrived on.”

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