It’s too bad I can’t brag about my straight-up picks. I mean, I did go 14-1 last week, with the only loss being the New Orleans Saints, who blew a fourth-quarter lead to the Carolina Panthers. That’s impressive, right?
Meanwhile, my against-the-spread picks were 8-7 last week, which I will take after two terrible weeks prior to that. The season record for ATS picks is now 64-71-3, which is gross. The straight-up record is 82-56-0.
As for the ATS picks last week, I got hosed on the Eagles blowing a big lead to the Jaguars and the Titans giving up a touchdown on the final play in regulation to the Patriots. Ouch.
This week features some interesting games, including Bengals at Ravens, Steelers at Commanders and Lions at Texans.
Let’s keep the momentum going. It’s November, time for my playoff push. OK, so I make the playoffs no matter what. But you get the idea.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook. Check out the latest Caesars promo to get in the game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Prime Video)
If the Bengals are to really be considered a playoff contender, they have to win this one. Both offenses can score, while both defenses have struggled. Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson will put on an offensive show here, with the Ravens pulling out a close one late.
Pick: Ravens 34, Bengals 33
Bonus: SportsLine expert Mike Tierney is on a 52-22-2 roll on Ravens games. We can tell you that he disagrees with me and is leaning towards the under for this monumental AFC North showdown. Check out which side he’s backing over at SportsLine.
New York Giants (-6) vs. Carolina Panthers (in Germany)
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET (NFL Network, fubo)
It’s too bad the poor German fan base has to be subjected to this mess. The Panthers won a game last week against the Saints, even though they were dominated. Bryce Young was better. The Giants are skidding. But they are the better team. That will show up. Giants take it.
Pick: Giants 21, Panthers 14
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-6)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Bears have lost two straight road games, while the Patriots are playing a second straight road game after losing to the Titans last week. Drake Maye turned it over three times in that game. This Bears defense will test him even more. Look for the Bears to get back on track here. Caleb Williams plays better in the battle of the rookies.
Pick: Bears 27, Patriots 16
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The move to play Joe Flacco didn’t pay off for the Colts last week. But he will start again. The Bills have run-game issues, so look for a lot of Jonathan Taylor here. Even so, I don’t think the Colts will slow down Josh Allen and his offense. Look for the Bills to stay hot.
Pick: Bills 30, Colts 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Jaguars have lost a lot of close games, but they have a lot of injury issues right now. The Minnesota offense should have a good day here as the Jacksonville defense is last in the league in pass defense. Justin Jefferson will light them up. Vikings take it.
Pick: Vikings 31, Jaguars 23
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Broncos lost on the road last week, while the Chiefs are playing on a short week. Kansas City seemed to find its offense a bit against Tampa Bay, while the Broncos defense was shredded by Lamar Jackson last week. This is a tough ask for Denver on the road again. Look for the Chiefs to stay undefeated as their defense gets the best of Bo Nix.
Pick: Chiefs 29, Broncos 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Saints fired coach Dennis Allen this week, replacing him with special-teams coordinator Darren Rizzi. He will liven things up.
The problem is the talent. The Saints are too injured. The Falcons will come into New Orleans and beat their rivals as Kirk Cousins and the offense stay hot.
Pick: Falcons 30, Saints 17
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The 49ers are coming off their bye, while the Bucs played on Monday. But this is a long trip for the 49ers. Even so, they are getting healthier. That matters. Christian McCaffrey might be back here. Tampa Bay is still so banged up. The 49ers will win it behind their run game.
Pick: 49ers 28, Bucs 20
Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders (-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Steelers are off their bye, while the Commanders are coming off a division victory over the Giants. This will be Russell Wilson’s first road start for the Steelers. He will have a new receiver in Mike Williams, but the Commanders have new corner in Marshon Lattimore. I think Jayden Daniels outplays Russell Wilson.
Pick: Commanders 23, Steelers 17
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, fubo try for free)
The Chargers have been playing well, winning two straight, while the Titans beat the Patriots last week. This is a big step up in class of opponent for the Titans, and it’s on the road. Look for Justin Herbert to stay hot as the Chargers take it.
Pick: Chargers 28, Titans 17
Bonus: The SportsLine model, which is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, is all over one team in this AFC showdown. Check out which team the model is backing over at SportsLine.
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Cardinals are one of the surprises so far, winning three straight to take over the NFC West lead. The Jets beat the Texans last time out on a Thursday. This is a long trip, but the Jets seem to have found something against the Texans. Aaron Rodgers and the offense showed some life. That will stay that way here as the Jets win a tough road game.
Pick: Jets 24, Cardinals 21
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)
The Cowboys will start Cooper Rush for the injured Dak Prescott here. Good luck. The Eagles will run the ball right at the Cowboys’ bad run defense with Saquon Barkley, who will have a field day. Look for the Eagles to win this one on the ground, but the Cowboys will hang around.
Pick: Eagles 24, Cowboys 21
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Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Houston Texans
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC, fubo try for free)
This is a second straight road game for the Lions against a team that is rested having played on Thursday. Normally, that would be a big edge to the Texans, but they aren’t playing well. The Lions are. Even so, I look for the Texans to bounce back and upset the Lions.
Pick: Texans 28, Lions 27
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ESPN, fubo try for free)
The Dolphins are playing consecutive road games and badly need this one, while the Rams are back home after winning at Seattle. The Rams have improved on offense as they’ve gotten healthier. The defense is growing up. Look for a big day for Matt Stafford.
Pick: Rams 31, Dolphins 23