Free agency begins tonight – will the Guardians’ be players this offseason to solve their starting pitcher problems, the biggest need on their roster?
Guardians fans know better than to expect Cleveland to spend a lot of money in free agency, but there are also a LOT of pitchers available in free agency and (theoretically) in trades this offseason. So, I am cautiously optimistic Guardians’ fans will see some action, probably later in the winter. The below article is an attempt to take a look at some of the names likely to be rumored in connection to the Guardians in the months ahead.
For the purposes of discussion, I’ll be using FanGraphs’ contract projections for their top 50 free agents below, provided by Ben Clemens.
Top Tier:
Corbin Burnes (7/$196M) – RHP, 30 years old, 3.55 FIP in 2024 (received the qualifying offer from the Orioles)
Blake Snell (3/$105M) -,t LHP, 31 yhyears old, 2.43 FIP i,n 2024
Max Fried (5/$140M) – LHP, 30 years old, 3.33 FIP in 2024 (received the qualifying offer from the Braves)
Jack Flaherty (4/$88M) – RHP, 29 years old, 3.48 FIP in 2024
Shane Bieber, (2/$36M) – RHP, 29 years old, 0.08 FIP in 12 innings in 2024
Analysis: I’d be absolutely shocked if the Guardians were swimming in this deep end of the free agent pool, except in the case of Bieber. Committing to long years and fairly high average annual value to starting pitchers in their 30’s doesn’t fit their m.o., and likely for good reason. But, just in case Paul Dolan is perusing an SB Nation site on a random weekday – flags fly forever, Paul. Flags fly forever. Any one of these guys would significantly bump up the odds at making a World Series run in a way no other player would. In regards to Bieber – if he signs this deal elsewhere, I’ll be upset. This is the perfect kind of deal for Cleveland. However, I suspect someone gives him three guaranteed and getting him closer to $50-60M which will be too rich for Cleveland for someone coming off Tommy John.
Mid-Tier:
Sean Manaea (3/$57M) – RHP, 32 years old, 3.83 FIP in 2024 (received the qualifying offer from the Mets)
Yusei Kikuchi (3/$51M) – LHP, 33 years old, 3.46 FIP in 2024
Nathan Eovaldi (3/$48) – RHP, 34 years old, 3.83 FIP in 2024
Nick Martinez (2/$32M) – RHP, 34 years old, 3.48 FIP as a starter in 2024 (just received a qualifying offer from the Reds)
Walker Buehler (2/$30M) – RHP, 30 years old, 5.54 FIP in 2024 (3.80 FIP in 2023)
Nick Pivetta (3/$42M) – RHP, 30 years old, 4.07 FIP in 2024
Luis Severino (3/$39M) – RHP, 30 years old, 4.43 FIP in 2024 (Received a qualifying offer from the Mets)
Matthew Boyd is in this tier… guessing something like 2/$28M as he was (surely mistakenly!) omitted from FanGraphs’ list – LHP, 32 years old, 3.29 FIP in 2024
Analysis: I think there are some reasonable possibilities on this list. Eovaldi, Severino, Kikuchi all have groundball rates over 40% which should play well with Cleveland’s infield defense and may help the team justify paying for their contracts in hopes of getting some value in the margins in return. Of course, Cleveland’s Logan Allen and Carlos Carrasco had groundball rates over 40% last season so it isn’t an end-all-be-all. I will remain quite skeptical that the Guardians will sign any of these players unless they slip through the cracks and end up looking for one-year deals in January. THEN, I could see them stepping in for a short-term commitment. The good news is, this list is extensive so someone slipping through is at least a possibility. I could see the Guardians liking another Reds castoff in Martinez if he ends up on the market but he’s going to be looking for at least 2/$30M now.
Lower-Tier:
Andrew Heaney (2/$26M) – LHP, 33 years old, 4.04 FIP in 2024
Frankie Montas (2/$24M) – RHP, 31 years old, 4.71 FIP in 2024
Trevor Williams (1/$11M) – RHP, 32 years old, 2.79 FIP in only 66 innings in 2024
Alex Cobb (1/$14M) – RHP, 37 years old, 3.29 FIP in only 16 innings in 2024
Kyle Hart (3/$24M) – LHP, 31 years, 3.28 FIP in KBO in 2024
Jose Quintana (1/$9M) – LHP, 35 years old, 4.56 FIP in 2024
Kyle Gibson (1/$9M) – RHP, 37 years old, 4.56 FIP in 2024
Spencer Turnbull (not on list) – RHP, 32 years old, 3.68 FIP as a starter in 2024
Analysis: I’ll be honest, folks, I believe your next Guardians’ number three/four starter is probably on this list somewhere. These salaries all seem like reasonable possibilites for our cash-strapped franchise. And there is some potential extra value here with groundball artists like Montas, Cobb, Quintana and Gibson. Personally, I like Trevor Williams a LOT at this value and the idea of giving another guy who found success in the KBO a chance in Hart is appealing to me (though NOT at that price, my Lord that seems high).
Trade Possibilities:
Garrett Crochet, White Sox – LHP, 25 years old, Under arbitration through 2027, 2.69 FIP in 2024
Kevin Gausman, Blue Jays – RHP, 33 years old, $46M through 2026, 3.77 FIP in 2024
Chris Bassitt, Blue Jays – RHP, 35 years old, owed $22M through 2025, 4.08 FIP in 2024
Jameson Taillon, Cubs – RHP, 32 years old, owed $36M through 2026, 3.92 FIP in 2024
Jon Gray, Rangers – RHP, 32 years old, owed $13M through 2025, 3.70 FIP in 2024
Reid Detmers, Angels – LHP, 25 years old, under arb control through 2029, 4.72 FIP in 2024
Tyler Anderson, Angels – LHP, 32 years old, owed $13M through 2025, 4.66 FIP in 2024
Jose Soriano, Angels – RHP, 26 years old, under arb control through 2029, 3.80 FIP in 2024
Zack Littell, Rays – RHP, 29 years old, arbitration in 2025, 3.88 FIP in 2024
Jesus Luzardo, Marlins – LHP, 27 years old, under arb control thru 2027, 4.26 FIP in 2024
Edward Cabrera, Marlins – RHP, 26 years old, under arb control thru 2029, 4.68 FIP in 2024
German Marquez, Rockies – RHP, 29 years old, owed $10M through 2025, 4.61 FIP in 2023
Analysis: The appealing thing about each of these names is that, theoretically, the main cost should be prospects with which the Guardians’ system is loaded. Everyone has guys who are untouchable for them, so I won’t argue about who is or isn’t available in this space. But, suffice it to say, if the Guardians WANT to, they could put a package together to land any one of these pitchers (maybe as part of a three-team deal). Some are bounceback candidates (Marquez, Luzardo), others are bets on the Guardians’ development team (Cabrera, Soriano, or Detmers), and others are groundball artists (Anderson, Taillon, and Gray). I will say I think Cleveland should be heavily involved in any Crotchet trade conversations, intra-division tax be darned. This is the player who most dramatically changes the team’s outlook at making a title run if acquired.
Other possibilites:
Additionally, If the Guardians can build a deal around Josh Naylor (most likely including prospects or a reliever), there are a few teams whose production at first base was terrible enough in 2024 to make this kind of deal a possibility if they are willing to trade the Guardians a starting pitcher on an expiring deal or a contract the team would like to move:
The Yankees (76 wRC+) – Nestor Cortes is 29 years old and in his last year of arbitration. In a vacuum, this kind of deal makes sense and I don’t think the Guardians would have to include one of their top five prospects along with Naylor to get Cortes. Just maybe a decent relief arm and Naylor could get it done. Cortes had some injury issues at the end of the year but put up a 3.84 FIP for the season. Here’s the problem: I don’t enjoy Cortes, and Yankees fans hate Josh Naylor. Now, does either organization care about our feelings? No. So maybe this is a possibility. On paper, it does make sense as a mutually beneficial deal. I do NOT enjoy the concept of Josh Naylor coming through for the Yankees against us in the postseason after failing to do so FOR us this season, however.
Pirates (86 wRC+ from first base in 2024) – Mitch Keller is under team control through 2028 at 4/$78M, and had a 4.08 FIP as a 28 year-old with his average fastball velocity declining by about 1 mph. If the Guardians are interested and believe they can help Keller adjust his pitch mix, I guarantee the Pirates would be interested in something here. I know I had many Pirates family telling me that Bob Nutting would NEVER betray them like this. And, honey, sweet summer child… I am going to need you to sit down for this… Nutting does not care about you. At all.
Houston (87 wRC+ from first base in 2024) – Finally, with the Astros, I think the play would be for Naylor and other pieces (would have to include a good prospect and perhaps a decent reliever) for Framber Valdez who put up a 3.25 FIP in 2024. It’s Valdez’s last season of arbitration. I don’t think it’s at all a sure thing that Houston moves him, but I think they’ll be open to the conversation. The Astros would also need to be ready to move on a free agent starter to help replace Valdez. Now, will Cleveland give up long-term assets for ONE year of a starting pitcher, even one as good as Valdez? I have no particular reason to believe they would, but the Astros and Cleveland have had some trading history in recent years (not to Cleveland’s benefit).
Finally, hey, if Cleveland is willing to trade pieces like Emmanuel Clase and/or Chase DeLauter, they probably open up themselves to the possibility of a variety of frontline starters teams might consider moving, folks not hitting free agency until 2028, like the Cubs’ Justin Steele, the Giants’ Logan Webb, the Nationals’ MacKenzie Gore, the Red Sox’s Tanner Houck, or the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara. Is some kind of blockbuster deal out there given the depth of the Guardians’ bullpen and farm system? You can’t rule it out, but, again, I’m going to have to see it happen to believe it because they haven’t pulled the trigger as buyers on a big trade like this since the Andrew Miller deal in 2016.
In summary, I do expect Cleveland to add at least two names on this list. I know enough not to set my expectations at Bieber and Crochet level, but I would be glad to be proven wrong. Most likely, it will be a rebound candidate in a trade, maybe for a team who loves Juan Brito’s bat, and then for a one year-deal for a guy like Nick Martinez, Trevor Williams, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson or Spencer Turnbull. Is that gonna be enough to win a World Series? Only time will tell.