For the second time in three seasons, Shane Beamer and the South Carolina Gamecocks are being disruptive in the College Football Playoff race. Saturday night’s blowout victory over Texas A&M torched the SEC’s last remaining unbeaten in conference play, setting up various chaos scenarios down the stretch with five teams tied atop the league standings heading into Week 11.
The Aggies’ second loss overall means there’s no margin for error the rest of the way and the season finale against Texas could be a playoff elimination game of sorts for Mike Elko’s team. For now, Texas A&M drops from our projected playoff bracket along with Clemson after the Tigers were slapped around by Louisville.
That was the Cardinals’ first win over Dabo Swinney and Clemson since entering the ACC in 2014 and marked the Tigers’ first setback at home during a night game at Memorial Stadium in 11 years. Unbeaten Miami and one-loss SMU are the league’s frontrunners with the Tigers being on the outside looking in and no ammo for an at-large bid.
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Our projections differ slightly from the sports betting markets ahead of Tuesday night’s first College Football Playoff top 25 rankings reveal. Ohio State is the favorite at +360 to win the CFP title at Caesars Sportsbook. Other top contenders Georgia at +400, Oregon +425 and Texas at +500, according to latest odds at Caesars. In our projected bracket, we have Oregon at No. 1 after the Ducks’ dominant win at Michigan. When you register at Caesars Sportsbook today, you can earn a welcome bonus that unlocks up to a $1,000 first bet back as a bonus bet. Use the promo code ‘CBS1000’ to claim this offer.
Projected byes in College Football Playoff
1. Oregon
Big Ten champion
Rolling, rolling, rolling. Keep that offense rolling. That’s the game plan for Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks over their final three games of the season as Oregon plans on entering conference championship weekend unbeaten with top billing in the playoff bracket on the line.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +425
2. Georgia
SEC champion
The Bulldogs have a couple tough games left in the SEC against Ole Miss and Tennessee, but they’ve earned the benefit of the doubt under Kirby Smart. However, if Carson Beck continues to turn it over in crucial situations, Georgia’s not going to finish how many expected. The SEC race is wide open with four weeks to play.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +400
3. BYU
Big 12 champion
The dust has settled in the Big 12 after Week 10 and the Cougars are the only unbeaten team left. Can BYU avoid upsets in the coming weeks, unlike Iowa State and Kansas State over the weekend? This conference looks like a one-bid league given the parity. Colorado is not out of the picture yet, either.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500
4. Miami
ACC champion
The Hurricanes like to play with fire, but at this point, Cam Ward is the ultimate hazard extinguisher given his statistical prowess this fall. Miami trailed Duke, 28-17, in the third quarter of Saturday’s game before opening a can down the stretch. SMU is now the Hurricanes’ biggest threat to a league championship.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1200
Projected CFP first-round games
5. Texas vs. No. 12 Boise State (in Austin)
Winner plays No. 4 Miami
About the Longhorns: Steve Sarkisian and Texas still have to play the back-half of their SEC slate, but truthfully, the matchups are favorable outside of the trek to College Station during rivalry weekend. To get the No. 5 seed, a runner-up showing in the SEC title game or perhaps an 11-1 finish without getting to Atlanta will be enough.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +500
About the Broncos: There’s not a single Power Four team champing at the bit to play Boise State in the first round with Ashton Jeanty in tow. Another 100-yard outing for the Heisman candidate pushed the Broncos one step closer to garnering top billing from the Group of Five ranks. Unbeaten Army is Boise State’s biggest challenger.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +7500
6. Ohio State vs. No. 11 Alabama (in Columbus)
Winner plays No. 3 BYU
About the Buckeyes: When Will Howard plays turnover-free football and this offense moves in rhythmic fashion, Ohio State is as good as any team in the country. Saturday’s win at Penn State was potentially job-saving for Ryan Day, whose team is very much at the top of the Big Ten title conversation behind Oregon and next to Indiana.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +360
About the Crimson Tide: Back as one of the last four in this week, Alabama strengthens its case as a two-loss at-large if the Crimson Tide toppled LSU in Death Valley to highlight the Week 11 slate. We don’t envision any three-loss teams getting in the first expanded playoff, regardless of SOS. It’s a must-win for both teams.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1400
7. Notre Dame vs. No. 10 Tennessee (in South Bend)
Winner plays No. 2 Georgia
About the Fighting Irish: Remember when the regular-season finale against USC was billed as a prime quality win opportunity for Notre Dame? That’s over since the Trojans have flatlined. The “show-me” game for Marcus Freeman comes against unbeaten Army later this month. With an 11-1 finish, Notre Dame’s a playoff lock.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2500
About the Vols: Tennessee benefited from South Carolina’s upset win over the Aggies and pulled even at the top of the SEC standings with several others after beating Kentucky. Scoring points has been a chore at times down the stretch, but the Vols’ defense continues to play at a championship level in Knoxville.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +1400
8. Penn State vs. No. 9 Indiana (in State College)
Winner plays No. 1 Oregon
About the Nittany Lions: James Franklin took full responsibility for red zone woes and missed opportunities following his team’s loss to Ohio State, yet another failure in a big-time spot for the Nittany Lions in the Big Ten. The resume isn’t great, but if Penn State wins out, this will be a playoff team inside the top 10.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2000
About the Hoosiers: Murmurs about Indiana’s fall were premature during the first half of Saturday’s blowout victory at Michigan State. The Hoosiers watched the Spartans score the first 10 points of the contest before firing off 47 unanswered. This is a machine with no signs of slowing down as one of the Big Ten’s two remaining unbeatens. Ohio State will test Indiana in a few weeks.
Odds to win the CFP, via Caesars: +2800
College Football Playoff quarterfinals are at the following bowl sites this year: Fiesta (Dec. 31), Rose (Jan. 1), Sugar (Jan. 1) and Peach (Jan. 1). Among notable tie-ins in the expanded playoff, the Sugar Bowl automatically gets the SEC champion in the quarterfinals, so second-seeded Georgia would be playing in New Orleans while the Rose Bowl welcomes the Big Ten champion to Pasadena.
MORE: How the committee will selection the inaugural 12-team field