After months of insults and debate, voters in the United States are set to go to the polls and pick between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to be their next President.
It has been billed as America’s most consequential election in a lifetime and the pollsters are struggling to separate the Republican and Democrat.
Our tipster Alex Harris has run the rule over Paddy Power’s US Presidential Election odds and picked out three best bets.
US Presidential Election Betting Tips
Kamala Harris Electoral College Votes – 270-299
#WhatOddsPaddy – Donald Trump to Win Arizona and Kamala Harris to Win Nevada
US State Betting – Pennsylvania (Democrats)
Kamala Harris Electoral College Votes – 270-299
Donald Trump has been the favourite in Paddy Power’s US Election 2024 betting for a while and the closeness of the polls would suggest a repeat of his 2016 triumph is on the cards.
The Republican candidate defied a defeat to Hillary Clinton in the Popular Vote by stitching together a coalition of voters in the swing states to win the Electoral College eight years ago.
But my hunch is pollsters are slightly exaggerating the level of Trump support – after failing to fully find his base at the last two elections – and that Kamala Harris is the more likely winner.
Considering the amount of bluster and spin, the whole thing is simply going to boil down to which candidate can get their supporters out – and the scraps of early-voting insight suggests the Democrats’ ground game is better than the Republicans’.
A candidate needs 270 Electoral College votes to emerge victorious and winning four or five of the seven battleground states would get Harris into the 270-299 ballpark, which looks possible because Arizona and North Carolina are the only ones that you could say with any confidence will go for Trump.
Quite frankly, it also helps that Harris is a much better candidate than Clinton.
#WhatOddsPaddy – Donald Trump to Win Arizona and Kamala Harris to Win Nevada
We take a trip to a couple of key swing states for the next selection.
Arizona – worth 11 Electoral College votes – looks likely to return to the GOP after voting for Joe Biden by roughly 10,000 votes four years ago. The polls would have to be seriously wrong for Trump not to claim the Grand Canyon State.
Despite being worth just six Electoral College votes, Nevada has become a big battleground as the polls are on a knife-edge. The Silver State generally trends towards the Democrats, however, and almost always votes the same way as nearby New Mexico, which looks set to back Harris.
US State Betting – Pennsylvania (Democrats)
A must-win state because of the 19 Electoral College votes on offer, Pennsylvania is likely to determine who will take the keys to the White House.
The polls suggest there is nothing to split Trump and Harris but, as previously outlined, my hunch is pollsters are slightly overestimating the former’s support at the expense of the latter.
The precious little data we can actually work with indicates the Democrats are doing a better job at getting voters out early compared to the Republicans – and ground game will be critical in the swing states.
Paddy Power’s US State Betting odds have Trump as the odds-on favourite in Pennsylvania so I’m willing to take him on.
US Presidential Election Betting Tips
Kamala Harris Electoral College Votes – 270-299
#WhatOddsPaddy – Donald Trump to Win Arizona and Kamala Harris to Win Nevada
US State Betting – Pennsylvania (Democrats)
*All prices are bang up to date with our snazzy widgets, while odds in copy are accurate at time of publishing but subject to change
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