If the first Saturday of November is a preview of what’s to come across the final month of the regular season, no one’s position in the rankings is safe. AP Top 25 voters have their work cut out for them after what took place in Week 10 as seven ranked teams took losses during another Saturday loaded with unexpected upsets.
These teams will all drop in the rankings, but where they land will depend on how much each voter wants to weigh what has been done so far in the season against a justified reaction to the weekend’s defeat. The fact that four of the losses came to unranked teams only exacerbates the difficulty for adjusting the rankings since there’s not necessarily an obvious head-to-head positioning on the ballot. We’re not projecting Houston or Louisville to jump into the top 25 based only on an upset win, so how do Kansas State or Clemson stack up against those other squads near the end of a ballot given the addition of a loss that can weigh down your rankings profile?
Ultimately, what we’ve found with this exercise in the past is that the ballots begin to differ wildly, creating a tighter squeeze among the consensus voting points. Upset weekends don’t always throw the entire top 25 upside down as much as they move the rankings closer together allowing for more rapid changes in the coming weeks.
All of this comes with the backdrop of the first College Football Playoff Rankings being released by the committee on Tuesday. And while we have observed some dog wags the tail and tail wags the dog behaviors from the AP poll and the CFP Selection Committee across the first decade of the playoff era, these results point to increased fluidity throughout November. Whatever is posted on Sunday in the AP Top 25 or on Tuesday in the CFP Rankings will be just a snapshot, because Saturday’s results have positioned us for more even more chaos as the 2024 regular season moves into its final act.
Here’s how we project the new AP Top 25 poll to look on Sunday after Week 10.
1. Oregon (Last week — 1): One of the few certainties when connecting the AP poll projections to the first CFP Rankings of 2024 is that Oregon will be the No. 1 team in the country. The Ducks have the record and look the part, and while beating Michigan at home provided some adversity — in part from losing star wide receiver Tez Johnson to an injury and also for a strong second half performance from Michigan’s defense — Oregon answered the call with a statement win.
2. Ohio State (4): While the loss to Oregon will ultimately keep most voters from moving the Buckeyes to No. 1, Ohio State is continuing to build a convincing case as the best team in the country. Ohio State overcame multiple miscues in a hostile environment yet delivered enough winning plays in the second half to down Penn State for the eighth consecutive season.
3. Georgia (2): Just 50 voting points separated Georgia from Penn State in last week’s balloting, and our projection is that the support for the Nittany Lions will drift over to Ohio State and the the shaky performance against Florida will lead to a one-spot drop for the Bulldogs.
4. Miami (5): Cam Ward continues to dazzle with his second-half heroics, finishing with 400 yards and five touchdowns as the Hurricanes erased a double-digit deficit for the third time this season to improve to 9-0 on the year. Ward’s 29 touchdown passes on the year have already tied the single-season program record and moves him into first place among all FBS quarterbacks in 2024.
5. Texas (6): The Longhorns were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next Saturday against Florida.
6. Penn State (3): The Nittany Lions have a pretty high floor for their fall considering the close loss to one of the teams widely considered to be among the best in the country. There is a lot of frustration within the Penn State fan base right now, but we’re projecting less concern from the voters since this team is 7-1 with multiple wins over teams with winning records.
7. Indiana (13): The time for keeping the Hoosiers outside the top 10 is over. All the chaos from Saturday only highlighted how difficult it is to remain undefeated, and the fact that Indiana faced that challenge trailing 10-0 on the road against Michigan State and responded with a whopping 47 unanswered points only drives home just how strong the foundation is for Curt Cignetti’s team.
8. Tennessee (7): The Volunteers got a stiff early test from Kentucky but held on to win and will preserve their spot in the top 10.
9. Notre Dame (8): The Fighting Irish were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Florida State.
10. BYU (9): The Cougars were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Utah.
11. Alabama (14): The Crimson Tide were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against LSU.
12. Boise State (15): Ashton Jeanty wasn’t even the most productive star for Boise State’s offense as San Diego State’s decision to load up to stop the run allowed for Maddux Madsen to total 307 yards and four touchdowns through the air in a 56-24 win. Jeanty was still excellent, totaling 149 yards and two touchdowns on 31 carries, but the Broncos’ firepower as a team was on full display as they prepare to make a run at the Mountain West title and a College Football Playoff berth.
13. SMU (20): The shake-ups elsewhere and the emphatic final result of Saturday night’s win against Pitt should propel a decent bump for the Mustangs, who now sit on a collision course with Miami in the ACC title race.
14. Texas A&M (10): Since Texas A&M just beat LSU last week, it’s hard to imagine getting dropped behind the Tigers in the new rankings given both teams have two losses. But there will be some voters who do so given the 24-point margin in defeat to previously unranked South Carolina.
15. LSU (16): The Tigers were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Alabama.
16. Ole Miss (19): Any reports of Ole Miss’ demise may have been greatly exaggerated, because for the first time in weeks, the Rebels offense was back to looking like the unit that was among the most productive units in the country at the start of the season. Jaxson Dart totaled 515 passing yards and six touchdown in an eye-popping 63-31 win at Arkansas that could lead to some more voter support after their rankings stock has seemingly bottomed out at No. 19.
17. Army (21): While Bryson Daily’s status will be of utmost concern moving forward, backup quarterback Dewayne Coleman was able to hold down the fort to secure a 20-3 win that moves the Black Knights to 8-0 on the season.
18. Iowa State (11): The problem for Iowa State is that without an undefeated profile, the team will be judged by the quality of its wins. As it stands, the Cyclones are not loaded with victories against teams with a winning record, so they are going to have a hard time winning tiebreakers against other one-loss teams.
19. Washington State (22): The Cougars were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Utah State.
20. Kansas State (17): A head-to-head win against Colorado might be the only thing that keeps Kansas State inside the top 25 because Saturday’s loss to Houston is not only a bad loss for the rankings but a potentially devastating defeat for the Wildcats in the Big 12 title race.
21. Colorado (23): The Buffs were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week at Texas Tech.
22. Missouri (25): The Tigers were off in Week 10 and will be back in action next week against Oklahoma.
23. Vanderbilt (NR): The Commodores dropped out of the rankings last week following a close loss to Texas, but only three voting points separated them from Missouri at No. 25. With a road win against Auburn moving Vanderbilt to 6-3 on the season, look for Clark Lea’s group to be back in the rankings.
24. South Carolina (NR): A thunderous 24-point win against Texas A&M will have the Gamecocks making their 2024 debut in the AP poll — the program’s first appearance since 2022 and just the fifth week of being ranked since the start of the 2019 season.
25. Clemson (11): The Tigers are in real danger of dropping out of the rankings; their best win on the profile is a victory over NC State, which improved to 5-4 on the year with a win over Stanford on Saturday.
Projected to drop out: No. 18 Pittsburgh, No. 24 Illinois