Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction, pick, spread, football game odds, where to watch, TV channel, stream

No. 4 Ohio State travels to No. 3 Penn State Saturday afternoon in a clash that has major implications for both the Big Ten race and the 12-team College Football Playoff. It’s another marquee game in a season filled with them; this is the fourth matchup between top-five teams this season, the most in a single year. By comparison, 2023 had just one regular-season top-five matchup. 

Betting odds, as well as recent history, are certainly on Ohio State’s side. The Buckeyes have won seven straight against the Nittany Lions, the longest winning streak for either team since they started playing annually in 1993. Buckeyes coach Ryan Day is 5-0 against Penn State. All five wins were by at least eight points. 

This will also be the eighth straight time both teams come into the game ranked and the first that both are in the top five of the AP Poll since 1996 — when No. 3 Ohio State beat No. 4 Penn State 38-7. Penn State hasn’t beaten Ohio State when both teams were ranked since 2008. 

Penn state enters in a good position, though. The Nittany Lions are one of just eight remaining undefeated teams at the FBS level and currently a -650 bet to make the College Football Playoff, according to FanDuel. There are three in the Big Ten alone, as Penn State is joined by No. 1 Oregon — which beat Ohio State in October — and No. 13 Indiana. So remaining unblemished is crucial for a team’s Big Ten hopes. 

Ohio State vs. Penn State: Need to know

Something’s got to give: Though both James Franklin and Ryan Day know how to win plenty of games, neither tends to do well against top-ranked competition. Franklin is 1-12 against AP top-five opponents and has lost each of his last 10 such matchups. Penn State is also a combined 0-6 against Ohio State in Michigan since 2021, but 35-5 against all other opponents. 

Day’s struggles have been a bit more publicized, given Ohio State’s consistent presence near the top of the sport. Day dropped to 2-6 against AP top-five teams with Oct. 12’s loss to Oregon, marking his fourth straight defeat in a top-five game. To make matters worse, Ohio State was a top-five team itself in each of those eight games. Day is 60-3 otherwise. Obviously one of them has to win this game, and whoever does takes a commanding lead in the race for the Big Ten Championship Game.   

All eyes on Allar’s status: Penn State coach James Franklin said Monday that quarterback Drew Allar will be a game-time decision against the Buckeyes. Allar exited late in the first half of Penn State’s Week 9 win against Wisconsin with an apparent knee injury. He tried to warm up before the start of the third quarter but was unable to return. His absence would, obviously, be a huge loss for the Nittany Lions. Allar has started 20 straight games, as Penn State is the only Big Ten school with one starting quarterback over the past two seasons. He also leads the Big Ten in passing yards (4,271) and touchdowns (37) since the 2023 season began. 

If Allar can’t go, Penn State would turn to experienced backup Beau Pribula. Pribula stepped in against the Badgers and secured the 28-13 victory while throwing for 98 yards and one touchdown on 11 completions and rushing for another 28 yards. Even with Allar healthy, Pribula often sees the field thanks to his athleticism and the threat he presents as a legitimate rushing option. 

Big test for Ohio State’s offensive line: Ohio State lost starting left tackle Josh Simmons for the year in its loss to Oregon. Then, in a Week 9 win against Nebraska, Zen Michalski — Simmons’ replacement — was carted to the locker room with an apparent lower-body injury of his own. The Buckeyes’ offensive line, particularly at the tackle spot, was thin even before Simmons’ injury. Now it’s entering the danger zone. Against the Huskers, Ohio State had a season-low in points (21), yards rushing (64) and total yards (285). Behind the ersatz offensive line, Ohio State’s running backs averaged a paltry 2.1 yards per carry. 

Now the Buckeyes have to go against a Penn State defensive front that allows just 93 yards on the ground per game, good for third in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions also rank sixth in the Big Ten with 46 tackles for loss.

How to watch Ohio State vs. Penn State live

Date: Saturday, Nov. 2 | Time: Noon
Location: Beaver Stadium — University Park, Pennsylvania
TV: Channel | Live stream: fubo (Try for free)

Ohio State vs. Penn State prediction, picks

There’s a lot of offensive uncertainty surrounding this game, with Allar’s status up in the air and Ohio State trying to figure some things out on the fly along the offensive line. Even if Allar’s able to go, there’s no telling if he’ll be 100%. This has all the makings of an defensive slugfest. Ohio State and Penn State both rank top three in the Big Ten in total defense and scoring defense. Each has only allowed conference opponents to score above 20 points once this season which, unless the game skews totally towards one side, would be required to hit the over. It’s a small betting line, but it doesn’t feel like there will be a ton of points scored. Pick: Under 46.5 (-110)

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SportsLine’s proven computer model is calling for five outright upsets in Week 10 of college football. Visit SportsLine now to see them all, plus get spread picks for every game from the model that simulates each game 10,000 times.