Storch Advisors CEO Gerald Storch assesses the state of the consumer, provides his outlook for the holiday season, and reacts to the September retail sales report.
Former Target Vice Chairman Gerald Storch painted a sobering picture of consumer sentiment while speaking to FOX Business on Thursday, anticipating a subdued holiday shopping season weighed down by economic and political uncertainties.
“It’s very clear that consumers are running out of money. They’re increasingly stressed by inflation and the exhaustion of their pandemic-era savings. When you take a look over the last several years, what you see month after month, everyone talks about, the consumer’s still spending. They might be, but they’re spending less than the growth of inflation,” he told Maria Bartiromo.
When asked about his expectations for the Christmas season, Storch offered a candid response: “[I don’t expect] too much, frankly.”
“I would think that [if] we can get growth in [the] 2.5% range, that’d be doing pretty well, and that’s not very good. In the heydays there, we’d really want to see something that’s more like 4% type of growth. You have, by the way, the shortest holiday season you can even imagine, so that’s against retailers.
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The holiday shopping season could be relatively dismal, Gerald Storch speculated. (iStock / iStock)
“Now and the time between Thanksgiving and Christmas is very, very short, so that’s going to be bad. The election’s going to weigh on things and the geopolitical situation as well, so I think it’s going to be a pretty weak Christmas,” the former Toys “R” Us CEO expanded.
His somber outlook reflects broader concerns over consumer spending amid economic headwinds.
The retail landscape is facing tough times with widespread downsizing and closures, signaling a broader downturn. Highlighting this trend, popular pharmacy store chain Walgreens recently announced the closure of 1,200 unprofitable locations across the U.S. as part of a turnaround effort, underscoring the challenges brick-and-mortar stores are encountering.
As chains like Big Lots and Family Dollar scale back as well, a bleak picture has emerged for the future of physical retail locations. According to earlier reports from UBS analysts, the next five years could see up to 45,000 retail closures.
“A lot of these retailers expanded very rapidly. Walgreens has like 4,000 stores – it’s incredible. Same thing for Family Dollar,” Storch explained.
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Certain brick-and-mortar store locations are being shuttered, including 1,200 Walgreens locations deemed “unprofitable.” (Leonardo Munoz/VIEWpress / Getty Images)
“That big bet on physical locations [came] just as the consumer was slowing down, and, of course, the Internet’s been growing,” he added.
On a broader economic scale, numbers from the Commerce Department released Thursday indicate retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than the 0.3% Dow Jones forecast. September retail sales year-over-year have increased 1.7%.
Jobless claims also came in at 241,000 versus the estimated 260,000.
Storch reacted to those numbers, telling Bartiromo, while retail sales have grown by 1.7% over the past year, the rate of inflation was 2.4%.
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In other words, prices rose more than sales, so even though people are spending more money, they are not actually buying more stuff – they’re getting less for their money.
“[The consumer is] spending more and getting less. Look at some of these numbers year-over-year. Electronics and appliance stores down 4.6%… Sporting goods down 3.5%… Department stores down 1.2% less than last year. Not even controlling for the 2.4% inflation increase… So from my point of view, I don’t think this is very good,” Storch warned.