A voter enters a polling place in Mountain Brook, Alabama on March 5. (Photo by Elijah Nouvelage)
It’s probably too much to try to ascertain the political implications, but it seems clear that people want to stay home around Election Day. They don’t want to fly and they probably don’t want to buy consumer goods either, Delta Air Lines executives say.
On the carrier’s third quarter earnings call on Thursday, President Glen Hauenstein said travel falls off markedly in early November. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 5
“It’s really obvious to see the trendline – markets performing incredibly well in October, and then again as soon as the election is complete.,” Hauenstein said. “Those two weeks are just way off trend.
“Domestic, short haul Latin, pretty much across the board, those two weeks are underperforming,” he said.
Before the call, CEO Ed Bastian discussed the trend on CNBC, saying, “We can see the discrete period a week or two ahead of the election or a week or two after the election as being a little bit of a pause, which makes sense if you think about it. With all the uncertainty, with all the rhetoric.”
Bastian went on to say that consumer purchasing could also take a pause in early November.
“I don’t think this is just going to be an industry story” that affects only airlines, he said. “I think you’re going to see it across consumer discretionary purchases as a whole. People are going to take a little caution. They’re going to want to find out what happens. They don’t like uncertainty when it comes to investing dollars, whether it’s buying homes or buying airplane tickets. We’ve seen it in past national elections.”
The last presidential election in 2020 came during an intense portion of the pandemic, so the effect of the election was muted, “but we could see it in our data,” Bastian said.
Despite the election falloff, Delta continues to see healthy air travel trends. “The good news in all that though, is Thanksgiving looks really strong,” Bastian said. “Christmas looks really strong. The holiday periods are strong. So we think we’re going to push through that period. But there will be chop.”